Manchester City – Manchester United
Manchester City welcomes city rivals United on Sunday evening for a derby that has already taken on special significance for both sides after just three matchdays. The Citizens are only 13th in the table with three points after defeats to Tottenham and Brighton, while the Red Devils are one point better off with four points. Both clubs have identified similar problems and responded with goalkeeper changes: Guardiola brought in Gianluigi Donnarumma from PSG after Ederson left the club, while Amorim is relying on Altay Bayındır following André Onana’s loan move to Trabzonspor. The recent record between the teams is remarkably even. The last meeting in April ended in a goalless draw, but in the five previous encounters, the away team won each time, with United securing two important victories, including the 2024 FA Cup triumph. City are also plagued by injury worries: Omar Marmoush is out with a knee injury sustained while on international duty, while Rayan Cherki will be sidelined until the end of October. United will have to do without the long-term injured Lisandro Martínez. Despite their poor form, the bookmakers see the hosts as clear favorites, which puts additional pressure on Guardiola’s team.
- Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
- Date and time: 09/14/2025, 5:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 4)
Man City form & record check
Manchester City go into the Manchester derby with serious concerns. After two consecutive defeats against Tottenham and Brighton, the Citizens are already under enormous pressure. Interestingly, a worrying pattern is emerging: both goals conceded came from quick counterattacks after failed pressing attempts by Guardiola’s team. The recent 1-2 defeat in Brighton once again revealed tactical weaknesses. Although Haaland gave City an early lead, they conceded the decisive goal in the 89th minute through Gruda. The Norwegian confirmed his ambitions for the World Cup with his country in an interview after scoring five goals against Moldova. Guardiola is facing a rebuild of his team. With only three points from three games and in 13th place in the table, City find themselves in an unfamiliar situation. They are already four points behind leaders Liverpool, while United are in 9th place with four points. Burnley are only one point behind City. Guardiola has to do without several regulars. Marmoush is out after his knee injury in the international match with Egypt, while Kovacic will be out until October after his Achilles tendon surgery. Cherki will also be out for weeks due to thigh problems. At least Guardiola can count on new signing Donnarumma, who is looking forward to competing with Trafford for the number one spot.
Guardiola is likely to field his team in the usual 4-3-3 formation, even though the squad has been depleted by several absences. Donnarumma is expected to start in goal after winning the battle for the number one spot with Trafford. The defense should be relatively stable with Rico Lewis, Stones, Dias, and Gvardiol. In midfield, Rodri could act as the anchor, flanked by Reijnders and Bernardo Silva. Kovacic’s absence until October makes rotation in the center more difficult. Up front, Haaland is likely to start after his gala performance for Norway. Foden and Doku could occupy the wings, although the injuries to Marmoush and Cherki noticeably limit the options in attack. This predicted line-up remains speculative until the official announcement, of course.
Manchester United Form & Record Check
Manchester United heads into the derby against Manchester City with mixed feelings. After a bumpy start to the season with a draw against Fulham and a defeat against Arsenal, the 3-2 home win against Burnley was important for morale. Bruno Fernandes converted the decisive penalty in the 90th minute to seal the victory. Recent form shows typical Amorim problems: United have conceded goals in all of their last five games, exposing defensive weaknesses. Interestingly, 80% of their recent games have seen more goals in the second half, which could indicate fitness or tactical adjustment issues. The 12-11 penalty shootout drama against Grimsby in the League Cup was symptomatic of United’s current form. Despite clear superiority against a fourth-tier side, they lacked composure. Such slip-ups reinforce the impression that Amorim is still searching for the right balance in his system. With four points from three league games, United are only one point ahead of Nottingham Forest and could quickly slip into the bottom half of the table if they lose. New signings Sesko and Cunha are bringing fresh impetus, but integrating them into Amorim’s 3-4-3 system is obviously taking longer than hoped.
Amorim is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 system for the derby against City, which helped United to their first win of the season against Burnley. The news that Bayındır will remain between the posts comes as little surprise, with the Turkish international having already played three league games. Yoro could play alongside de Ligt and Shaw in the back three, with Martínez’s cruciate ligament injury continuing to leave gaps in the defense. Bruno Fernandes is likely to start in midfield, as he leads the Premier League in chances created and is United’s most important creative force for the derby.
H2H Man City – Manchester United Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent record between these two teams paints a fascinating picture: United leads with two wins to City’s one in the last five encounters. It is particularly noteworthy that the Red Devils secured both victories at crucial moments. The last league match in April 2025 ended goalless, but before that, the visitors won 2-1 in December 2024 and in the 2024 FA Cup final. City only had reason to celebrate in the Community Shield after a penalty shootout, following a 1-1 draw after extra time. The statistics for the first halves are interesting: in four of the five matches, fewer than 1.5 goals were scored before the break. The games obviously only really get going after the break. City scored in three consecutive second halves, while United scored at least one goal in four games. Both teams have conceded at least one goal in each of their last four head-to-head matches. This suggests open, competitive games in which the defense has not always been solid. Only once have both teams kept a clean sheet.
The tip for “Both teams to score: Yes” at odds of 1.5 reflects City’s offensive potency and United’s defensive vulnerability. Haaland returns from the international match against Moldova with five goals, while Fernandes has already created twelve scoring chances in this Premier League season, leading the league. City have both scored and conceded in four of their last five league games, while United have failed to keep a clean sheet this season. With Lisandro Martínez injured and the defense already looking porous, this tip seems well-founded. The numbers also support “Over 3.5 goals” at 2.4: four of City’s last five games have produced four or more goals, while United have conceded in every game. The riskier bet on “Over 2.5 goals – 1st half” at 5.0 is based on City winning four of their last five first halves and scoring an average of 1.6 goals before the break. United have conceded three times in 30 minutes in their last three games. The betting markets see City as clear favorites at 1.8, but this analysis finds particular value in goal bets, where both teams’ defensive problems meet offensive class.
