Bayern Munich – Hamburger SV
After seven years, Hamburger SV returns to the Munich Arena, but the omens could hardly be more different. Bayern leads the table, while HSV is in 15th place with only one point from two games and has failed to score in either match. The recent past paints a frightening picture for the visitors: 51 goals conceded in their last eight away games speak for themselves. The last meeting ended 6-0 for Bayern in 2018, part of a series of humiliations. Nevertheless, coach Merlin Polzin emphasizes that his team is “incredibly excited” about this special encounter. While Bayern are missing key players in Musiala, Davies, and Ito, HSV will have to do without Bakery Jatta. New signing Nicolas Jackson is ready to play after his first training session, but is unlikely to start. Interestingly, Fábio Vieira, who now plays for Hamburg, had previously been offered to Bayern.
- Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
- Date and time: September 13, 2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 3)
Bayern form & record check
Bayern Munich has had a promising start to the season and is sitting at the top of the table after two matchdays. The Munich team won its first two Bundesliga games, with a particularly impressive 6-0 home victory against RB Leipzig. However, the second league game in Augsburg also revealed some initial weaknesses. Despite the 3-2 win, the defense looked vulnerable, especially in the second half. The lead at halftime seemed comfortable, but Augsburg came back after the break. Kane and Olise made decisive contributions with their assists, while Gnabry and Díaz scored the goals. Interestingly, a clear pattern has emerged in the last five games: Bayern have scored in every second half, but have also conceded goals in four of five games. With nine goals in two Bundesliga games, Munich have set a club record. Kane and Olise are already working well together, while new signing Jackson will need more time. The Senegalese only started training on Thursday and is unlikely to be in the starting lineup against Hamburg.
Vincent Kompany is expected to field his team in the usual 4-2-3-1 formation. However, the Belgian will still have to do without several key players. The absence of Jamal Musiala, who suffered a fibula fracture at the Club World Cup, weighs particularly heavily on the offensive line-up. Jackson could get a chance to replace the injured creative player after completing his first training session this week. However, it would be surprising to see him in the starting lineup, as the Senegalese player has only had a few sessions with the team. Davies and Ito are also still out, which limits the options in defense. The predicted formation shows Laimer at right-back and Stanisic at left-back.
HSV Form & Record Check
Hamburger SV is struggling with a mixed start to the new Bundesliga season. After seven years in the second division, Polzin’s team has only collected one point from two games so far and is currently in 15th place in the table. Both Borussia Mönchengladbach above them and Werder Bremen below them also have only one point to their name. The derby against St. Pauli two weeks ago was particularly bitter. In a 2-0 defeat in front of their home crowd, HSV fell behind early on through Dźwigała and made matters worse with Gocholeishvili’s sending-off in the 77th minute. The second goal by Hountondji ultimately sealed the defeat in the prestigious city derby. Previously, they had at least taken a point from the opener in Mönchengladbach, although the goalless draw underlined their defensive stability rather than their attacking prowess. HSV failed to score in their first two league games, which highlights their problems in attack. In the DFB Cup, the team only prevailed against Pirmasens after extra time, but showed fighting spirit and morale in the process. Merlin Polzin will know before the trip to Munich that his team needs to improve, especially in terms of converting chances. With Bakery Jatta, an important offensive player is also out due to muscle problems.
Coach Merlin Polzin is likely to field HSV in their usual 3-4-3 formation. In the back three, Omari could stabilize the defense between Elfadli and Torunarigha, while Gocholeishvili and Muheim should provide the necessary width on the wings. Remberg and Capaldo are expected to control the center of midfield. In addition to Königsdörffer, Sahiti could also get a chance in attack, while Røssing-Lelesiit is another option up front. Jatta’s absence due to muscle problems limits the options on the wings. With experienced players such as Glatzel, Poulsen, and Pherai on the bench, Polzin certainly has some notable alternatives at his disposal. It remains to be seen whether he will rely more on experience or youthful enthusiasm against a Bayern side in fine form.
H2H Bayern – HSV Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between Bayern Munich and Hamburger SV shows clear dominance for the Munich side. Bayern have won all five meetings since 2016, some by clear margins. Particularly striking were the 6-0 home win in 2018 and the 8-0 win in 2017. A pattern emerges when looking at the development over time: Bayern scored in the second half in all five games and was already leading at half-time on four occasions. Hamburg, on the other hand, failed to score in the first 45 minutes and regularly conceded goals after the break. The Hanseatic club’s away record against Bayern is sobering, with only one goal scored in the last three away games in Munich. The last meeting between the two sides was over seven years ago, when both teams were still playing in the Bundesliga. This historical burden could be an additional mental hurdle for Hamburg.
While the betting markets rate a home win at just 1.1, practically taking it for granted, the over-goal markets offer some attractive opportunities. Over 3.5 goals at 1.6 seems almost conservative given Bayern’s explosive offense featuring Kane, Olise, and Díaz, as well as HSV’s historical vulnerability in Munich, with Hamburg conceding a whopping 50 goals in their last eight away games there. Interestingly, the new creativity with Fabio Vieira and the fact that Neuer has been beaten in four of the last five games points to realistic chances for “Both teams to score: Yes” at 2.1. The boldest tip, Over 2.5 Goals – 1st Half at 3.2, reflects Bayern’s habit of overrunning opponents early on, as evidenced by their 3-0 lead after 28 minutes against Leipzig. While the outcome is hardly in question, the manner of it promises plenty of entertainment for those betting on goals.
