Hamburger SV – FC St. Pauli
HSV returns to the Bundesliga after seven years, and their second game is set to be a cracker: the Hamburg city derby against FC St. Pauli at the Volksparkstadion. Both promoted teams started the new season with a draw, with HSV remaining goalless at Borussia Mönchengladbach, while St. Pauli fought back to a spectacular 3-3 draw against Borussia Dortmund. The bookmakers see HSV as slight favorites, which underlines the balance of this encounter. Coach Merlin Polzin will have to do without his key offensive players Glatzel, Pherai, and Jatta, while Alexander Blessin will have to manage without Nemeth, Mets, and Irvine at St. Pauli. Hamburg narrowly won the last meeting in May 2024 by 1-0, and history shows a clear pattern: mostly high-scoring games with late twists in the second half.
- Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
- Date and time: August 29, 2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 2)
HSV Form & Record Check
Hamburger SV started the new Bundesliga season with a goalless draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach. After seven years in the top flight, the performance was correspondingly cautious, with Merlin Polzin’s team showing defensive stability but struggling to make an impact in attack. The personnel situation further exacerbates the problems, as Robert Glatzel, the goal-scoring guarantee of the promotion season, is a bitter loss for the still uncoordinated attacking efforts. The decision in goal is noteworthy: Daniel Peretz, on loan from FC Bayern Munich, was surprisingly demoted to number two, with Polzin opting for Daniel Heuer Fernandes instead. Recent performances paint a mixed picture. While HSV celebrated convincing victories against Darmstadt and Ulm in the preseason, the narrow cup win against Pirmasens was already a warning sign.
Coach Merlin Polzin is likely to send his Hamburg team into the derby with the tried-and-tested 3-4-3 formation. As expected, Heuer Fernandes will be in goal after beating Bayern loanee Peretz in the competition for the position. The back three could consist of Omari, Elfadli, and Torunarigha, while Gocholeishvili and Muheim are likely to provide pace on the wings. Remberg and Capaldo are expected to start in central midfield. Personnel planning in attack will be problematic, as both Pherai and Glatzel are out with injuries. Königsdörffer seems to be one of the few established players in the offense, while Sahiti and the young Røssing-Lelesiit could fill the other striker positions.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
FC St. Pauli’s form reads like a textbook on missed opportunities. Alexander Blessin’s team has not won a single game in its last five matches, with three draws and two defeats speaking for themselves. The Bundesliga opener against Borussia Dortmund was indicative of the team’s current form: the spectacular 3-3 draw at Millerntor highlighted both strengths and weaknesses. Hountondji and Sinani proved their dangerousness in front of goal, but defensively the team looked vulnerable for long periods, with Eric Smith saving a point with his late goal. The statistics show a remarkable weakness in converting chances; Hamburg create opportunities, but too often lack the necessary clinical finishing. The personnel situation is tense, with Irvine, Nemeth, and Mets, three important regulars, out of action, and Ceesay and Jones also unavailable.
Coach Blessin is likely to rely on his tried-and-tested 3-4-1-2 formation against HSV. As expected, Vasilj will be in goal, while the back three could consist of Wahl, Smith, and Dzwigala. Pyrka and Oppie are planned to play as wing-backs on the flanks. The central midfield could consist of Sands and Fujita, with Sinani likely to play as playmaker in the attacking midfield, supported by the two strikers Hountondji and Pereira Lage up front. St. Pauli will be without several key players: Irvine is still out after his foot surgery, Nemeth is out with muscle problems and Mets is out for fitness reasons, and strikers Ceesay and Jones are also unavailable.
H2H HSV – St. Pauli Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five derbies between these two Hamburg clubs show an interesting pattern. HSV won three of the five encounters, while St. Pauli recorded only one victory and one game ended in a draw. HSV’s dominance in the second half is remarkable: In four of the last five encounters, the Rothosen managed to score after the break, while they were practically never ahead at halftime. The duels were always high-scoring, with at least three goals scored in four consecutive encounters. The spectacular 4-3 in April 2023 and the 2-2 in December 2023 underscore the offensive nature of these city duels. St. Pauli has scored in each of the last four encounters, but has rarely been able to muster the necessary defensive stability. The Kiezkickers’ only clear victory came in October 2022 with a convincing 3-0 win.
The betting tips are based on striking trends for both teams and make use of some interesting market constellations: While the betting market rates the city derby with moderately different odds (HSV at 2.4, St. Pauli at 3.0), the statistical patterns point in clear directions. The tip for under 1.5 goals at halftime is based on a remarkable 80% trend for both teams in their last five games. Hamburg’s injury worries further reduce their offensive power, while St. Pauli already has problems in attack. The opposite is suggested for the second half: 80% of HSV’s games have seen more goals after the break, while St. Pauli has regularly conceded late goals. The boldest tip is for “Both teams to score: No,” based on St. Pauli’s five winless games without a convincing offense and Hamburg’s solid defense around Heuer Fernandes.
