Lecce vs. AC Milan
Milan suffered an embarrassing home defeat against newly promoted Cremonese, while Lecce earned a respectable draw against Genoa. On Friday, these two teams, who could hardly have had more different starts to the new Serie A season, will face each other at the Stadio Via del Mare. Massimiliano Allegri’s Rossoneri are already under pressure after the first matchday. With a record of four wins and only one draw from their last five encounters with Lecce, the head-to-head record clearly favors Milan, but their current form tells a different story. Milan’s botched home debut, with 24 shots but only one goal, revealed considerable problems in converting chances. Interestingly, despite their poor start to the season, the betting markets see Milan as clear favorites with a probability of around 60%. The absence of Rafael Leão due to a calf injury is likely to further complicate Allegri’s plans. Lecce can build on their solid performance against Genoa, even though they have not won in five games against Milan and have regularly been behind at halftime.
- Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero – Via del Mare, Lecce
- Date and time: 08/29/2025, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 2)
Lecce form & record check
US Lecce has made a solid start to the new Serie A season and is in decent shape after a goalless draw at Genoa. The 0-0 opener was not spectacular, but the team played well defensively. Interestingly, the Salentini remained compact for 90 minutes and allowed hardly any dangerous situations. The Giallorossi’s current form looks robust, even if they are still lacking in offensive punch. They are unbeaten in their last five competitive games, conceding only two goals and showing remarkable defensive stability. Particularly noticeable is their weakness in the second half, where the team has so far failed to score. With one point from their first game, Lecce are in 13th place in the table, level on points with several rivals such as Verona and Genoa. This balanced situation in the middle of the table shows how close it could be this season. Coach Di Francesco will know that offensive creativity needs to be improved in order to avoid getting stuck in the relegation zone. In terms of personnel, Lecce will continue to be without Jean and Marchwinski, both of whom are out for the long term with cruciate ligament tears. This noticeably limits the tactical options, even if new signings such as Pierret have been able to make an immediate impact. The substitutions against Genoa certainly had an effect, even if the decisive goal did not materialize.
US Lecce are expected to line up in their usual 4-3-3 formation, which coach Di Francesco has favored this season. Falcone is likely to be in goal, while the back four could consist of Veiga, Kialonda Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, and Gallo. The midfield will probably be made up of Coulibaly, Ramadani, and Berisha, with the latter acting as the creative force. In attack, Banda, Camarda, and Tete Morente are likely candidates for the starting lineup. Two serious injuries are currently weighing on the squad: Jean and Marchwinski are both out with cruciate ligament tears and are not expected to return until the fall. These absences limit Di Francesco’s tactical options, although players such as Sottil and Pierotti are available as alternative solutions for the offense.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
The record speaks for itself: after a 1-2 defeat to Cremonese in their season opener, AC Milan are in 15th place in the table with zero points. Interestingly, Massimiliano Allegri immediately introduced a new 3-5-2 system, but despite 24 shots on goal and decent conversion of chances, it wasn’t enough to earn any points. The defense switched off when Cremonese took the lead from a corner, a pattern that is already causing concern. Pavlović saved Milan with his header shortly before halftime, but Bonazzoli’s spectacular overhead kick in the 61st minute sealed the surprising home defeat. One might think that Milan actually needed stability after a disappointing eighth place finish last season. Instead, they have already suffered their first setback, while rivals such as Napoli and Juventus have made a successful start. Leão’s absence until September significantly weakens the offense. Pulisic and new signing Giménez will have to fill the gap, but despite numerous chances, they lacked punch against Cremonese. The transfer activity, with Boniface’s medical check imminent, suggests that Allegri still wants to adjust his system. A point in Lecce would be important to avoid early pressure.
Milan are likely to line up in their usual 3-5-2 formation, which Allegri has favored since his return. Maignan will be in goal, while Tomori, Gabbia, and Pavlović will provide stability in the back three. Saelemaekers and Estupiñán are likely to occupy the wing-back positions, where they will be called upon to contribute both defensively and offensively. The midfield could feature the experienced trio of Modrić, Loftus-Cheek, and Fofana. A key absence is Rafael Leão, who is not expected to return until early September due to a calf injury. Giménez and Pulisic are likely to partner up in attack, with the two already appearing to have a good understanding. However, this lineup remains a prediction, as Allegri could make tactical adjustments. Leão’s absence will force the coach to make changes in attack anyway, which will open up new opportunities for the other forwards.
H2H Lecce – AC Milan Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between Lecce and AC Milan paints a clear picture: Milan have dominated the last five encounters, winning four and drawing one. Interestingly, the Rossoneri managed a run of four consecutive wins before the draw in November 2023 broke that streak. The most recent encounter in March 2025 was a typical example of these duels: Milan won 3-2 away from home, although Lecce was able to keep up this time. That was a significant improvement on the two previous home games in Milan, where Lecce lost 3-0 without a chance. Milan’s early dominance in these games is striking. In four of the five encounters, Milan were already leading at half-time, showing that they were usually able to show their class early on. Lecce conceded at least one goal in all five games, while Milan always scored. The only draw dates back to November 2023, when the two teams played out a 2-2 stalemate. It was the highest-scoring of these five matches and shows that Lecce is certainly capable of challenging Milan when they are on form.
The first tip for under 2.5 goals is based on Lecce’s remarkable run of five consecutive games with few goals and Milan’s weakened offense without the injured Leão, who is not expected to return until early September. This odds of 1.73 could well offer value, considering that Lecce has kept four clean sheets during this period and their defensive discipline has improved significantly under Di Francesco. The second tip focuses on the second half, where Lecce has kept under 1.5 goals in all of their last five games and has not conceded a single goal, underscoring their structured approach and late defensive strength. Interestingly, Milan has shown a weakness in draws in the second half, which makes this market even more attractive. The riskiest tip is the double chance on Lecce or a draw, which goes against market opinion but is certainly justified: Lecce are unbeaten in five games, while Milan are visibly shaken after their embarrassing 1-2 defeat to promoted side Cremonese and will have to do without their winger.
