Bayern – Leipzig
Harry Kane describes the current Bayern squad as one of the smallest of his career, and it is with precisely this thin squad that FC Bayern Munich welcomes RB Leipzig to the Allianz Arena on Friday evening for the Bundesliga opener. While Leipzig is undergoing a shake-up following the departure of Benjamin Sesko to Manchester United and the arrival of seven new signings, Munich won the Super Cup against Stuttgart just four days ago. The recent history between the two sides promises spectacle: the last meeting in Leipzig ended in a 3-3 draw in May, after Bayern had won 5-1 in Munich in December. Interestingly, the bookmakers see Bayern as clear favorites with over a 75% chance of winning, which is also due to Leipzig’s inconsistent performances and the first competitive game under coach Ole Werner, who already criticized his club for defensive lapses after the cup game against Sandhausen.
Bayern – Leipzig Info
- Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
- Date and time: 22.08.2025, 20:30
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 1)
The betting tips presented are based on striking statistical anomalies for both teams. While the betting market considers Bayern to be the clear favorite with odds of 1.3, the data shows some interesting alternative approaches. The tip for over 3.5 goals is supported by recent game results: Bayern reached this mark in 80% of their last five games, Leipzig in four out of five encounters. Bayern’s defensive vulnerability is particularly telling, as the Munich team has conceded goals in each of its last games. The recommendation “both teams to score” seems very likely given the current personnel situation, especially as Leipzig’s revamped offense will face a Bayern defense weakened by the injuries to Davies and Ito. An interesting approach is to bet on over 1.5 goals in the second half, as both teams have exceeded this mark in 80% of their recent games after the break.
Bayern form & record check
Bayern Munich are left with mixed feelings after their Super Cup victory over Stuttgart (2-1). Harry Kane and new signing Luis Díaz scored, but the team did not always look confident. Vincent Kompany is concerned about the squad: Jamal Musiala is out indefinitely, Alphonso Davies is struggling with a cruciate ligament injury, and Hiroki Ito and Paul Wanner are also unavailable. Michael Olise could take over the central attacking role behind Kane, as Kompany hinted after the Stuttgart game. Recent form has been mixed, with three wins and two defeats in the last five games, with Bayern conceding at least one goal in each of those games. The Super Cup was symptomatic of this trend: after Kane’s early goal, Munich controlled the game but let up in the closing stages and came under pressure from Jamie Leweling’s late equalizer before Díaz scored the winner in the 77th minute.
Bayern are expected to line up in their tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation, but will need to be creative: Michael Olise could be called upon to fill the central position behind Harry Kane, while Serge Gnabry moves to the right. Josip Stanisic is likely to step in for the injured Alphonso Davies on the left side of defense. Leipzig are likely to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, with Vandevoordt in goal and a back four of Baku, Orbán, Lukeba and Raum. Schlager, Seiwald and Simons are likely to occupy the midfield, with Nusa, Openda and Diomande providing the attacking threat.
Leipzig form & record check
RB Leipzig are going into the season with mixed feelings after their 4-2 cup win in Sandhausen. The team fell behind twice against the fourth-division side, prompting coach Ole Werner to voice strong criticism. He spoke of “wrong decisions here and there” in defense, words that carry weight given the upcoming away game against Bayern. Four of the last five games have seen more than 3.5 goals scored, with Leipzig regularly conceding goals. Benjamin Henrichs and Lukas Klostermann, two important defensive players, are out with injuries. On a positive note, the team’s offensive power is impressive: Xavi Simons showed his class in Sandhausen with a goal and an assist, while Willi Orban and Yussuf Poulsen also scored. With new signing Romulo replacing Sesko and David Raum as the new captain, Werner has a powerful offense at his disposal.
The last five encounters between the two teams have been thoroughly entertaining, with at least three goals scored in each match. Leipzig scored in all five games, while Bayern failed to find the net only once. The most recent encounter in May 2024 ended in a spectacular 3-3 draw in Leipzig, after Munich had won 5-1 at home in December. The series of five games in which both teams scored is remarkable, which makes tomorrow’s clash particularly exciting.
H2H Bayern – Leipzig Head-to-head & Statistics
The last five encounters between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig have been thoroughly entertaining. Interestingly, at least three goals were scored in each of these matches, which speaks for the offensive orientation of both teams. Leipzig scored in all five encounters, while Bayern failed to find the net only once.
The most recent clash in May 2025 ended in a spectacular 3-3 draw in Leipzig, after Munich had won 5-1 at home in December 2024. These two games highlight the unpredictability of this pairing. One might think that home advantage plays a role, but the record is evenly balanced.
Noteworthy is a series of five games in which both teams have scored. This offensive consistency makes tomorrow’s clash particularly appealing. Bayern have mostly dominated the second half and won four of the five games after the break, while Leipzig have more often taken the lead in the first half.
