Sunderland vs. West Ham
Sunderland is back in the Premier League, and Graham Potter’s West Ham is coming to the Stadium of Light for the season opener. Régis Le Bris will make his league debut, Potter will start with a full preseason for the first time, both teams are formally without points in 17th and 19th place and are thinking primarily about staying up. An early three points could set the tone for the entire season.
Recent history favors the visitors. The last Premier League clash ended 2-2 in 2017, with West Ham unbeaten in their most recent encounters and scoring in every game. Interestingly, former Hammer Arthur Masuaku now plays for Sunderland. Models estimate the probability of relegation at 66.5% for Sunderland and 21.5% for West Ham, which emphasizes the importance of this start, even if much is still up in the air at this stage.
From the press conferences: Granit Xhaka will wear the captain’s armband at Sunderland and is expected to bring order, while Le Bris is focusing on compactness. Luke O’Nien and Dennis Cirkin are missing in defense. At West Ham, Potter is shaping identity and stability, Mads Hermansen is increasing competition in goal, and Crysencio Summerville is not expected until mid-September. There are good reasons to believe that finesse and patience will count more than spectacle.
Sunderland – West Ham Info
- Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland
- Date and time: 16.08.2025, 16:00
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 1)
Under 1.5 goals – 1st half looks convincing. Sunderland failed to score in their last four competitive games before the break, with the first 45 minutes seeing fewer than 1.5 goals in each game. West Ham also failed to score in four of their last five first halves. Le Bris has to bed in a revamped defense with Reinildo Mandava and Arthur Masuaku, Dennis Cirkin is out, and Potter’s teams usually start in a controlled manner.
Over 2.5 goals is still plausible over the full distance. Four of West Ham’s last five games have gone over this mark, while Sunderland’s games have all conceded goals recently and have mostly been high-scoring affairs. Add to that Potter’s slightly more open approach following the departure of Kudus, with El Hadji Malick Diouf as a dynamic wing-back and Crysencio Summerville in good shape, while things could still improve behind new signing Mads Hermansen.
The double chance 1X is based on the home advantage on the first night of Premier League action at the Stadium of Light, the new leadership figure Granit Xhaka, and the massive summer boost. West Ham have not drawn in any competition recently and are therefore prone to swings in form. The Hammers are publicly predicted to finish around 15th in the table, with Opta giving them a 21.5% chance of relegation, so a point or more seems realistic for the newly promoted side.
Sunderland Form & Record Check
Sunderland comes into the game on the back of a positive, if not flawless, run in the spring. Three good results in four competitive games, but conceding a goal each time. The first halves are usually uneventful and without goals, but the games open up after the break. That speaks for strong nerves and late solutions, but also for a certain vulnerability in the closing stages.
In the playoffs, they secured a mature 2-1 win in Coventry and, at home, a 1-1 draw against Coventry after extra time was enough to see them through. The final against Sheffield United ended 2-1, with the slip-up before that, a 0-1 defeat to QPR, showing the limits of the team when they lack pace in attack.
The personnel situation is mixed. Granit Xhaka leads as the new captain and provides structure, but absences such as Luke O’Nien and Dennis Cirkin cost stability, with Cirkin likely to be out until after the international break. The contract extension for Trai Hume provides continuity, while transfers such as Reinildo Mandava and Arthur Masuaku add width on the wings. Under Régis Le Bris, consistency currently counts more than risk-taking. Formally, Sunderland are level with Nottingham Forest and Tottenham ahead of the kick-off, which is more a reflection of organizational factors.
Régis Le Bris is expected to stick with a 4-4-2 formation. Patterson in goal, behind him Hume, Ballard, Alderete, Mandava. In the center, Xhaka, the new captain, alongside Neil, with Talbi and Adingra on the wings. Up front, Mayenda plays deep alongside Guiu, who brings presence to the penalty area. Minor variations are possible, but this remains the most likely starting eleven.
Injuries are plaguing the defense. Dennis Cirkin is expected to miss the first few games, Alese is out until mid-September, O’Nien and Hjelde are unavailable, as is Huggins. Mandava is likely to start on the left, with Masuaku as the alternative. Mundle is missing on the wing, so Roberts or Ba could step in depending on the situation. All of this is just a prediction, mind you.
West Ham Form & Record Check
West Ham seem to be on the up across all competitions. They won 3-1 at Ipswich on the last day of the league season, followed by a 2-0 win at Bournemouth and a 2-1 victory over Everton, with a 1-2 defeat at Manchester United and a 1-2 loss to Nottingham Forest in between. The momentum often came after the break, Potter’s structure is working, but the rest of the defense is still shaky.
Remarkably, there have been no draws in the last five games, with at least two goals scored in each game. The first halves were uneventful, but West Ham always scored after the break, although they also conceded frequently. Bowen and Füllkrug set the tone, Mads Hermansen stabilizes the build-up play, and El Hadji Malick Diouf brings depth on the right wing. After Kudus’ departure, the options up front are rather thin, Summerville is initially missing, but the update is positive. They are level on points with Tottenham and Wolves at the start. Expectations remain mixed, but the balance between controlled possession and purposeful wing play could now gradually emerge.
Starting XI prediction: Graham Potter is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Areola is expected to start, with Hermansen as a strong backup. In the back four, the signs point to Wan-Bissaka on the right, Todibo and Kilman in the center, and Diouf on the left, who pushes up very high. In front of them is the tried-and-tested duo of Soucek and Ward-Prowse, who provide rhythm and set pieces. Small shifts are conceivable, but the basic structure seems set.
In attack, we expect Bowen on the right, Paquetá as a ten and Emerson a line higher on the left. Füllkrug could start as a target man to finish crosses and cut-backs. Summerville is still struggling with a thigh injury and, despite positive reports, is more likely to return in mid-September. Alternatives such as Walker-Peters or Álvarez would therefore be conceivable for more stability. All subject to change, this is a possible starting eleven.
H2H Sunderland – West Ham Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five encounters took place between 2015 and 2017. West Ham are unbeaten in this run, with three wins and two draws. It is striking that all three wins came at home. In Sunderland, the score was 2-2 twice, in 2015 and 2017. Sunderland are therefore still waiting for a win against this opponent.
The goal difference in this period from Sunderland’s point of view is 4-7. West Ham scored in every game, while Sunderland never kept a clean sheet. Three times the score was 1-0 for the Londoners, in 2015 and twice in 2016. After the break, there were often few goals, with a maximum of one in four of the five games, and Sunderland conceded after the break in four of those games. Patience and defensive discipline could once again be important factors.
