Table of Contents
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Manchester City
A heavyweight clash: Wolverhampton Wanderers face Manchester City at Molineux on Saturday in the Premier League, Matchday 1. Vítor Pereira begins his first full season on the Wolves sidelines, while Pep Guardiola leads a revamped City side back onto the stage after a title-less year and a third-place finish. The setting is perfect, the backdrop is already there, and both sides know that a winning start in this league is more than just a mood booster.
Interestingly, the most recent league clash in May went narrowly to City, with the Skyblues winning nine of their last ten Premier League games against Wolves, although Molineux did tip the balance once in September 2023. City are currently without playmaker Rodri, with Mateo Kovačić working his way back from injury, but Rayan Cherki and the eye-catching Tijjani Reijnders are pushing for places. Wolves lost Cunha, Aït-Nouri and Semedo in the summer and have looked vulnerable at home recently. The markets favor City, with Manchester City to win and under 4.5 goals a likely outcome.
Wolverhampton – Man City info
- Venue: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands
- Date and time: 16.08.2025, 18:30
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 1)
Our three tips are interlinked. Both teams to score: No seems plausible because City have scored in 100% of their last five games, Wolves have conceded in 80% and have lost important attacking resources in Cunha and the dynamic wing play of Aït-Nouri and Semedo; this is in line with the statistics for this fixture, with City winning nine of the last ten league games. Under 1.5 goals – 1st half is based on Wolves’ pattern of staying below this line in 80% of their recent first halves, Guardiola’s tendency to break down opponents after the break, and Rodri’s absence, which slows down the build-up play. It is noteworthy that City’s last win at Molineux came very late and the other meeting was also close. Those looking for more risk can go for over 3.5, as both teams have frequently exceeded 1.5 in the full 90 minutes recently, with Wolves at 80% and City at 100%, and new signing Reijnders scored twice in pre-season, while Wolves’ home form has been inconsistent and their defense has remained vulnerable; on the flip side, City often keep games under 4.5, so only with small stakes.
Wolverhampton Form & Record Check
The final stages of the league provided a mixed picture, with good spells alternating with simple mistakes, especially before the break. The results: 3-0 against Leicester, then 1-0 at City, 0-2 at home against Brighton, 2-4 at Palace, 1-1 against Brentford. In the last five games, there was never a draw at half-time, and in 80% of them they were behind and conceded early. Interestingly, the games often ended with over 1.5 goals.
The dress rehearsal against Celta Vigo ended in a 0-1 defeat, and the mistakes in build-up play were obvious. Jhon Arias brought pace and ideas, but the final pass was missing, and Sasa Kalajdzic wasted a promising chance late on. Vítor Pereira is sticking with a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Strand Larsen as a fixed point. Departures such as Cunha, Aït-Nouri, and Semedo leave gaps, and Yerson Mosquera is out injured. Kalajdzic could still feature in the squad, however. The Wolves are currently in 20th place in the table, level on points with West Ham. Their poor home form from last season remains an issue, with a pattern of often scoring less than 1.5 goals in the first half and 80% of games ending with over 1.5 goals. Stability before the break could be the key, as Strand Larsen and Arias provide enough attacking power.
We expect a 3-4-2-1 formation under Pereira, based on our prediction: Sá in goal, Toti, Agbadou, and Bueno in front of him. Doherty and Wolfe on the wings, André in the center alongside Gomes. Behind them, Arias and Bellegarde in the half-space, with Strand Larsen in front of them. That remains a possible starting XI, not confirmed, with the idea of getting into the midfield early.
Mosquera is out with a cruciate ligament rupture and Chiwone is also missing, while Kalajdzic could be a wild card in the squad. Following the departures of Cunha, Aït-Nouri and Semedo, the system is expected to remain unchanged, with the wingbacks providing width and Arias linking up between the lines. Doherty and Wolfe are likely to dribble forward early, but Pereira can make fine adjustments depending on the opponent.
Man City form & record check
City have won four of their last five, but the 3-4 defeat to Al Hilal was a setback. The 5-2 win at Juventus, 6-0 against Al Ain, 2-0 against Wydad and 2-0 at Fulham show how early they open up games. Interestingly, their control falters somewhat after the break, with the lead being managed rather than extended.
The patterns are clear: they consistently win the first halves, score in every game, and concede more than 1.5 goals each time. Their full-time return is around 80%, but the pace slows down after the restart. One could assume that the lack of rhythm in the midfield is having an effect. Reijnders is supposed to push forward, Cherki brings ideas between the lines, and the right-back position is being improvised following Walker’s departure. The structure remains positional play, only a little more direct. Personnel shapes expectations, with Rodri and Joško Gvardiol missing according to team news, Mateo Kovačić out after Achilles tendon surgery, and Reijnders looking set to start. Cherki takes over the number 10 role, Grealish is on loan, and the goalkeeper question surrounding Ederson and the trail to Donnarumma continues to simmer. City are formally in 13th place in the table, without any points, with Liverpool directly above them and United directly below. The kick-off at Molineux will be a yardstick.
Our predicted City line-up remains a 4-3-3. Ederson in goal, with Dias in front of him as a fixed point. Lewis is expected to come in on the right, with Aït-Nouri providing width on the left. In midfield, new signing Reijnders should provide plenty of ball progression, with Silva linking the lines. Up front, Foden, Haaland, and Doku will provide pace and depth. This is a possible starting XI, not a confirmation.
Personnel: Rodri and Gvardiol are still out according to team news, Kovacic is out after Achilles tendon surgery, and Wilson-Esbrand is also out. Ergo, one of Stones or Aké could start alongside Dias. Cherki is a candidate for minutes or even a league debut. Minor adjustments are conceivable, but the basic formation is likely to remain the same.
H2H Wolverhampton – Man City Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five encounters, City have won four and Wolves one. In the two most recent games within the last twelve months, City have narrowly prevailed on both occasions. In May 2025, the score was 1-0, and in October 2024, it was 2-1. Both were fairly uneventful games without any surprises, underlining City’s ability to control close matches.
Previously, there was a clear 5-1 win for City in 2024, an outlier with a 2-1 win for Wolves in 2023, and a clear 3-0 win for City in 2023. Overall, there has not been a single draw in this span.
City scored in all five games, with the overall goal difference standing at 12-4. Wolves never kept a clean sheet. Four of the five games saw over 2.5 goals, with this streak ending in May 2025. In addition, City scored after the break in each of the last four encounters, while Wolves conceded after the break in four consecutive games.
