ATP Masters in Rome, quarter-finals, Wednesday, 14.05.2025, 8:30 p.m.
He can do it! Alexander Zverev is currently showing in the Eternal City that the Rome Masters is simply one of his favorite tournaments. He needs to keep up the momentum in the quarterfinals to get closer to his dream of defending his title.
But beware: a damn tough opponent awaits, who beat the German twice in 2024. In my Musetti Zverev tip, I’ll tell you why I think it’s going to be a very close match and why I’m predicting three sets!
Three appearances, three wins, zero sets dropped – that’s exactly how Alexander Zverev imagined his start to the Masters in Rome. He is the defending champion here, having triumphed in 2017 and reached the final again in 2018.
After a mixed 2025, Zverev had to digest an early exit and a straight-sets defeat to Francisco Cerundolo in Madrid a few weeks ago. Upon arriving in Rome, he spoke of being a little overplayed.
But there is no sign of that in the Eternal City. He started with a confident 6-2, 6-1 win over Camilo Ugo Carabelli, followed by a 6-4, 6-0 victory over Villius Gaubas. Arthur Fils was a tough opponent in the round of 16.
But the Hamburg native kept his cool. After winning the tiebreak, he dominated the second set 6-1 in a true show of power. 4-4-7? Zverev is not happy with the number of break points he has conceded to his opponents.
Successful first serves or points won on first serve? So far, we’re still waiting in vain for an eight at the front. In the first set against Fils, Zverev wanted to pull away to 5-1, but in the end it was once again a really close call.
The 28-year-old will therefore know that, overall, his performances were good, but none that no one could counter. Lorenzo Musetti, in particular, will have watched the matches with little concern, having beaten the German twice in 2024.
Once at the Olympics and once indoors, Zverev has some catching up to do in head-to-head matches. Musetti plays a one-handed backhand on the right, which makes him extremely difficult to play against.
The Italian will be able to cope with the fact that the odds at our bookmakers with PayPal are not in his favor – an average of 2.20 to 1.63 is being quoted.
For the local hero, who was born in Tuscany, this is the first time he has reached the quarter-finals here in Rome. Deserved? Absolutely! He too has yet to lose a set, despite facing some big names.
6-3, 6-2 against Otto Virtanen, 6-4, 6-3 against Brandon Nakashima and 7-5, 6-4 against Daniil Medvedev? Impressive. Musetti only allowed one break in total, so Zverev will have a very difficult time when his opponent is serving.
The 23-year-old already made a positive impression in Madrid. Among others, he won in straight sets against Alex de Minaur and Stefanos Tsitsipas, only being eliminated in the semi-finals by the eventual champion Jack Draper.
In Monte Carlo, as you will surely remember, he even made it to the final, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz after leading. So there’s no question about it: Musetti and clay are a great match this season.
My Musetti Zverev tip
How far will Alexander Zverev go here in Rome? His three performances so far have been confident, but I don’t want to praise the defending champion too highly. Arthur Fils, in particular, made it far too easy for him.
Lorenzo Musetti, on the other hand, is in really good form. He has already reached at least the last four in two major tournaments on clay in Monte Carlo and Madrid. As he has been impressive with his serve in Rome and has yet to drop a set, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict:
This match will go to three sets!
