ATP Masters in Rome, 2nd round, Friday, 09.05.2025, 11:00
New tournament, new luck – at some point this year, Alexander Zverev’s knot must finally burst. The 28-year-old has the chance to show his critics at the Masters in Rome.
He starts off on Friday against an Argentinian. Please note: players of this nationality generally like clay very much.
In my Carabelli Zverev betting tip, I will now tell you why I expect the German to show a little defiance. So my betting recommendation is: Outright favorite victory
“I had the feeling that I was a little mentally burnt out.” Alexander Zverev has a reflective tone, even though the Masters in Rome hasn’t even started yet. The Hamburg native knows that this year 2025 is not going according to plan.
After narrowly missing out on the title at the Australian Open, he slipped into a minor crisis. Even the title at the BMW Open could only cheer him up for a short time. Zverev tries to explain himself.
“My level of play wasn’t that great before Munich. There are a few explanations for that. I think the main reason was that I didn’t rest after the Australian Open. “
Zverev also knows that he is sometimes rightly criticized. In Madrid, after a straightforward win against Roberto Bautista-Agut, he beat Alejandro Davidoch-Fokina by a wafer-thin 2-6, 7-6, 7-6, before losing out to Francisco Cerundolo.
He had only managed to break twice in three sets against Fokina and not at all against Cerundolo. Does the Masters in Rome suit him a little better? You might think so if you take a brief look at his history.
The 2021 Olympic champion is the defending champion here, having triumphed in the Eternal City for the first time in 2017. He has reached the final here three times, which is really impressive. First of all, Zverev has to make sure he gets through Friday’s opener unscathed.
Zverev will face Camilo Ugo Carabelli for the first time in his career. The 25-year-old Argentinian is still without a title on the ATP Tour and is ranked number 60 in the world. If you take a look at the odds from our PayPal betting providers, you will find an average of 5.80 to 1.08.
Carabeli already failed to qualify for Rome in 2023 and 2024, but now he can try his hand in the main draw for the first time. His opener has already been a success.
He won a hard-fought 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 against Pablo Carreno Busta. The victory was on a knife-edge, as both players were actually on an equal footing.
Carabeli allowed all three break chances and was unable to fend off any. Since his Challenger triumph in Rosario, he has picked up one or two good results, but he has not been able to beat any really big names.
The 25-year-old missed Barcelona with an injury and in Madrid he was beaten 4-6, 4-6 by Christopher O’Connell in Round 1. The break problem was also evident here, with his opponent taking advantage of all three opportunities.
My Carabelli Zverev tip
The bottom line is that the bookmakers expect little excitement from this match – which is why the betting offer is unfortunately limited to the minimum.
Measured by the probability of occurrence, however, the odds of 1.38 for a 2:0 favorite win are okay. This can also be easily combined with another “pretty sure” bet if necessary.
My bet: 2:0 Zverev
