ATP Masters in Madrid, 2nd round, Saturday, 26.04.2025, 11:00 a.m.
New Masters, new luck. The German men’s tennis team has not had its best year so far, but that is set to change at the Mutua Open. Jan-Lennard Struff also wants to finally show his stable side again.
The Warsteiner has stopped his losing streak and advanced to the second round. There, he will face a top star for the tenth time since 2019, who is, however, struggling to regain his composure. In my Tsitsipas Struff tip, I will now reveal why I am betting on a German set win here.
Jan-Lennard Struff had to digest eight defeats in a row, delivering matches that completely passed him by. In Munich, he lost 0-6, 2-6 to Francisco Cerundolo, and before that in Monte Carlo, Valentin Vacherot defeated him 2-6, 1-6.
“I can do it in training, but as soon as I’m on the court, it’s like someone’s pulled the plug. Of course it feels awful,” said a desperate Struff after his exit from the BMW Open.
Since the tournament in Marseille in mid-February, Struff has not only lost eight times, but also won only one set. Arriving in Madrid, he was naturally not considered the favorite in his first match.
An intense, close match quickly developed against Botic van de Zandschulp. The German won the first set 7-5, which gave him confidence. After van de Zandschulp equalized 6-2, the third set had to decide the match.
With the score at 4-1 in Struff’s favor, the Dutchman threw in the towel, clearly exhausted. It’s hard to say whether the 35-year-old (who celebrates his birthday on April 25 at the Mutua Open) was up against a top-fit opponent.
But Struff should know: Madrid? This is where I celebrated one of the greatest successes of my career. Two years ago, he stormed his way to the final, losing 4-6, 6-3, 3-6 to Carlos Alcaraz after a very tough fight.
Alcaraz was also the one who ended Struff’s 2024 tournament in the round of 16. He will probably have noted with a smile that he now faces Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Why? Quite simply because a kind of eternal duel is developing between these two. They have already faced each other nine times, with Tsitsipas leading 5-4 in a very close contest.
However, he only managed to win in straight sets in 2019, in their first match, and even then, the 7-6, 6-4 score was not exactly clear-cut. Incidentally, Struff and Tsitsipas met once before in Madrid two years ago, with the German winning 6-7, 6-4, 6-4.
So are our PayPal bookmakers betting on a close result? Not necessarily, as they are sending Tsitsipas into the match with average odds of 1.35, while Struff is at a damn high 3.15.
The Greek is on the verge of dropping out of the top 20, as he hasn’t been this weak in several years. In 2019, he was in the final here in the Spanish capital, but he is currently far from that.
In 2024, he was knocked out in the opening round by Thiago Monteiro. After appearing with his partner Paula Badosa at the Laureus Awards, he is now back on court in Madrid.
But how fit is Tsitsipas? A few days ago in Barcelona, the 26-year-old beat Reilly Opelka and Sebastian Korda, but retired against Arthur Fils in the quarterfinals after just a few rallies.
Since winning the title in Dubai in early March, he has not made it past the quarterfinals. But since then, he has not made any major mistakes that have resulted in an early exit.
Before retiring in Barcelona, Tsitsipas did not allow a single break point. So if Struff wants to surprise everyone on Saturday, he will have to play his own game and win his service games.
My Tsitsipas Struff tip
For Jan-Lennard Struff, the victory against Botic van de Zandschulp was a relief, even if it only came about after his opponent retired. After eight defeats in a row, he clenched his fist. Madrid? That has usually been a good place for him in recent years.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is by no means a feared opponent, and the two always engage in damn close battles. That’s why I’ve decided to go against a clear victory and predict:
Struff will take the first set!
