BMW Open in Munich, quarter-finals, Friday, 18.04.2025, 12:00 p.m.
“That would be revenge for revenge for revenge,” joked Alexander Zverev after his victory over Daniel Altmaier in the media round about a possible duel against Tallon Griekspoor. And now it’s happening, for the fifth time in a year!
And it has usually been a really close match, with the French Open duel, in which Zverev made a mega comeback in the fifth set, unforgettable.
In my Zverev Griekspoor tip, I expect another thriller and see value here in the set winner bet for Griekspoor. Bet-at-home offers the right odds.
It’s not just with my Formula 1 tips that I always take a close look at the weather to make sure I’ve taken all the factors into account for a suitable bet, but also in tennis when the clay court season is coming up.
Temperature, humidity, and court moisture have a big impact on the game. Zverev can tell you a thing or two about that, having struggled in Munich in recent years when the thermometer was not far above 0 degrees Celsius and sleet was falling from the sky.
No, the German is not a fair-weather tennis player. It has much more to do with the fact that the ball behaves differently in these conditions, becoming saturated, heavy, bouncing lower and, at the same time, unable to accelerate as well.
All of which is poison for the powerful serve of Zverev, who has a higher swing comfort zone than Griekspoor, who is ten centimeters shorter. Things looked much better in the first two rounds.
He gave Alexandre Müller and his compatriot Altmaier no chance, spending just over an hour on the tournament’s temporary new center court.
The BMW Open has been upgraded this year, rising from a 250 to a 500 event.
And rightly so, in my opinion. It’s a beautiful tournament on the edge of the English Garden, which I visited myself in 2022 and saw Zverev lose to a certain Holger Rune right at the start of the tournament.
At the time, the result was considered a debacle, but a few days, and then weeks and months later, it became increasingly clear that the Dane had become one of the new stars on the scene. This time, Zverev is in the quarterfinals for the first time. Will he go even further?
The first matches in the Bavarian capital, where his favorite soccer team plays, went well. However, the weather is set to change on Friday. Rain is forecast for Friday morning, with a maximum temperature of 12 degrees Celsius.
So I’m a little skeptical, even though I think Zverev is in better shape in Munich this year than in previous years. I’m well aware of the tournament’s top seed’s recent results, but even then he played very good tennis for long stretches.
Are the bookmakers underestimating the weather conditions? At 1.25, Zverev is considered the clear favorite, with Griekspoor at 3.65. That’s a bit too wide a gap for me.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 6-2, but lost his only match in 2025 against the Dutch number one. That was the opening match in Indian Wells.
Overall, the Hamburg native has won just 52 percent of the points when we add up all the matches. He has won only one of his last four matches in straight sets. In addition, the conditions suit Griekspoor better.
He was already very close to success in Shanghai, where he lost 6-7, 6-2, 6-7 on a flat-bouncing court. And his pure clay court record? We only had the match in Paris, where the best players in their respective countries faced off in five sets. In addition, Zverev often has problems against players like Griekspoor.
The world number 37 plays aggressively throughout. His opponent, on the other hand, repeatedly finds himself standing far behind the baseline. Zverev has clearly improved his game over time, but he has not yet been able to completely exorcise his defensive demons.
Griekspoor also didn’t drop a set against Yannick Hanfmann and Learner Tien. In addition to the set winner bet, I can recommend a tiebreak bet. Bet365 has the right odds.
You don’t pay any betting tax there. We’ve seen at least one tiebreak in six consecutive matches in this matchup, and there have been eight in that time!
My Zverev Griekspoor tip
For me, Zverev against Griekspoor is already a close call. But now, with the cool and wet conditions on Friday, I even see advantages for the supposed underdog.
The heavier and deeper balls suit him and neutralize Zverev’s game.
He even won his last match and only match so far in 2025 against the German. Before that, he had also come close on several occasions, losing only one of his last four matches in straight sets.
Therefore, my Zverev Griekspoor tip is: Griekspoor to win the set.
