ATP Masters in Miami, Quarterfinals, Friday, 03/28/2025
We are moving towards the final in big steps! At the Miami Masters, Alexander Zverev is now the last German representative out. But a local hero is preparing to make the fans dream of an American final.
In my Berrettini Fritz betting tip, I am dealing with a match that, at least historically, can only have one winner. So I’ll tell you why I’m backing Fritz – even though the bookmakers are being cautious!
Before I start my analysis, I would like to tell you directly what the PayPal betting providers have come to. They also see Fritz in front, but average odds of 1.50 to 2.50 also show how close it can be in the end.
Well, let’s take a look at what both opponents have achieved so far in Miami. Taylor Fritz has not yet lost a single set, which is pretty impressive.
He started the tournament with a 7-6, 6-3 win over Lorenzo Sonego, followed by a 7-5, 6-3 win over Denis Shapovalov. In the round of 16, the current world number 4 defeated Adam Walton 6-3, 7-5.
Walton and Sonego didn’t have a single break chance, while Shapovalov saved three of four break points. For each of his own breaks, the American served nine aces.
He also won 85% of his points on his first serve, with only one double fault. No question about it, the 1.96m tall player’s service was on point in all three matches.
That said, Miami is not even his favorite Masters, having only reached the quarterfinals once. In 2023, he lost here to Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets. So his best tournament result has already been matched, a semi-final would be a pleasing first.
So far, 2025 has not gone according to plan for Fritz. At the Australian Open, he lost in the third round to Gael Monfils, after which he only managed to win a maximum of two matches per competition.
The fact that he is now facing Matteo Berrettini should please Fritz. The two have met four times so far – and all four duels went to the American. The last time they faced each other was at the US Open 2024, which Fritz won 6-3, 7-6, 6-1.
Four duels, four tiebreaks – when two players with almost two meters in height meet, that’s not surprising. Accordingly, I can tell you: If you place the tiebreak bet at Bet365, the odds will be below 1.40!
So you would have to go over 1.5 tiebreaks to get a profitable 4.00 odds. However, both Fritz and Berrettini have only played one tiebreak in this Masters.
The Roman, who is back in the top 30 in the world after a series of injuries, has actually won a match in the Miami main draw for the first time ever this year!
So the curse has been broken. Berrettini started by beating Hugo Gaston 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, then Zizou Bergs 6-4, 6-4. He caused a major upset in the round of 16.
He defeated Alex de Minaur 6-3, 7-6! On average, the 28-year-old does not quite reach the 80% first serve win rate, and de Minaur had nine break chances (only two used).
So in terms of service, I would rate Fritz a little stronger. Berrettini had lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Indian Wells and Dubai, and was knocked out by Jack Draper in Qatar. That means: only strong opponents were involved in his defeats.
My Berrettini Fritz tip
Can Matteo Berrettini sensationally reach the Miami semi-finals? The hatred tournament and he, a friendship is finally emerging here. But with Taylor Fritz, he now faces a man he can’t stand, at least in terms of sport.
The American has won all four duels and, fittingly, has not yet lost a single set in Miami. It could be a close game, but in the end I have to go for the following tip:
Fritz beats Berrettini!
