FSV Mainz 05 – FC St. Pauli
Our Mainz – St. Pauli tip is: Mainz to win – 1.82 odds
- Mainz has won all three previous Bundesliga duels against Pauli
- Mainz has won five of its last six Bundesliga home games
- Pauli has lost seven of its last 11 Bundesliga away games
When FSV Mainz 05 face FC St. Pauli at the Mewa Arena on Saturday, two Bundesliga teams with very different form will go head to head. Mainz were able to move up to 6th place in the table with a convincing 2-0 away win against Heidenheim and are now even looking towards Europe. The new strike duo of Burkardt and Weiper are particularly promising – both attackers scored in the most recent win.
St. Pauli, on the other hand, have recently suffered a major setback. The 0-1 home defeat to Freiburg, caused by a late own goal, was already their third defeat in a row. To make matters worse, Hamburg lost an important defensive specialist for the rest of the season with James Sands (fractured fibula). Coach Alexander Blessin now has to rebuild his team, which is in 14th place – no easy task given the tight personnel situation. You can find out who will win this duel in our Mainz – St. Pauli betting tip.
Mainz – St. Pauli Info
- Stadium: MEWA ARENA, Mainz
- Date and Time: 02/22/2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 23
- TV broadcast: SKY
Mainz Form & Bilanz Check
The FSV Mainz 05 is currently in remarkably good shape. In particular, the recent 2-0 away win against Heidenheim underlines the team’s positive development. The new strike duo of Jonathan Burkardt and Nelson Weiper are working well together – both scored in the important win in Heidenheim and could be the key to further successes.
Mainz compact in the second half
With 35 points and 6th place in the table, Mainz are having a surprisingly strong season. Their defensive stability is particularly interesting: in the last five games, they have not conceded a single goal in the second half. However, the 0-0 draw against Augsburg and the 1-0 defeat in Bremen also show that there is still room for improvement in attack – 80% of their games have recently ended with fewer than 2.5 goals.
The battle for the European places is intensifying: only one point separates Mainz from fifth-placed SC Freiburg, and they are level on points with VfB Stuttgart. The form is right, two wins from the last three games speak for themselves. It will be interesting to see whether Bo Henriksen’s team can continue this upward trend and actually qualify for the international competition.
Mainz facts & analysis
- Last game won 2-0
- Not conceded a goal in the second half in the last five games
- Unbeaten in seven home games
Mainz 05 are likely to field a 3-4-1-2 system, which proved successful in the 2-0 win over Heidenheim. The striking duo of Burkardt and Weiper is particularly interesting, having grown increasingly comfortable with each other in recent weeks.
Amiri is likely to play behind the two strikers, while Kohr is expected in the back three – a position he has been filling surprisingly well recently. In midfield, Nebel is likely to take the central role. Mwene and Caci are expected to occupy the wing positions. Zentner can be expected to be between the posts as usual.
However, this lineup has not yet been confirmed – coach Henriksen could well have one or two surprises in store.
St. Pauli Form & Bilanz Check
St. Pauli are currently going through a rather mixed phase. The most recent 1-0 home defeat against SC Freiburg – ironically due to a late own goal from Philipp Treu – was already the second defeat in a row, after they had previously lost 2-0 at RB Leipzig. Particularly bitter: the Hamburgers remain stuck in 14th place in the table.
The team’s defensive performance is quite remarkable – in 80% of the last few games, they have only conceded a maximum of one goal in the first half. However, the loss of James Sands, who was seriously injured against Freiburg and will be out for the rest of the season, is already making itself felt. After the previous injuries to Guilavogui and Saliakas, the personnel situation for coach Alexander Blessin is becoming increasingly dire.
Will Pauli avoid the relegation battle?
It is interesting to note that St. Pauli was able to convince before this small negative streak – the 3-0 win against Union Berlin and the 2-0 away win in Heidenheim showed the team’s actual potential. With only three points behind Union Berlin, the connection to the midfield is still there. However, the team needs to get back on track quickly, because Hoffenheim, level on points, is lurking as the next contender in the relegation battle.
St. Pauli Facts & Analysis
- Two defeats in a row
- First leg lost 0:3 against Mainz
- Seven of the eleven away BL games lost
The St. Pauli team is expected to line up in the usual 3-4-3 system. After the serious injury to Sands, who has a broken fibula and a complicated ankle injury, Boukhalfa will probably move into the starting eleven. It will be interesting to see how the defense reorganizes after Treu’s unfortunate own goal against Freiburg.
The offensive line around Eggestein and Saad will likely remain unchanged. Blessin will probably rely on proven forces, with Sinani on the bench as an alternative. However, the final lineup will not be known until shortly before the game begins.
Mainz – St. Pauli head to head & statistics
The head to head between Mainz 05 and St. Pauli is few and far between, but it is quite revealing. In the last meeting in October 2024, Mainz won 3-0 away from home. Before that, you have to go back a long way in the history books – to 2011, when the 05ers got the upper hand at home with a 2-1 win. Mainz also emerged victorious in December 2010, when they won 4-2 at the Millerntor.
What is interesting here is that Mainz have a perfect record – three games, three wins. In each of these duels, at least three goals were scored, which suggests an offensive spectacle. Particularly striking is the fact that the 05ers consistently scored in the second half, while St. Pauli conceded at least two goals in all of the games.
You might think that these games, which took place a long time ago, have little significance. However, Mainz’s most recent 3-0 win shows that they still have a good plan against Hamburg today. It remains to be seen, of course, whether this trend will continue under Mainz’s new coach Bo Henriksen.
