Manchester City – Newcastle United
Our Man City – Newcastle tip is: Man City to win – 1.93 odds
- City have won their last 15 PL home games in a row against Newcastle
- City won seven of their 11 PL home games
- Newcastle won six of their 12 PL away games
A tense duel is in store at the Etihad Stadium when Manchester City face Newcastle United on Saturday. Both teams are level on 41 points in fifth and sixth place in the Premier League – only the better goal difference speaks in favor of the Citizens. Interestingly, only one point separates both teams from 4th place, which is currently held by Chelsea.
The recent form of both teams gives rise to discussion: City had to accept a bitter 2-3 home defeat against Real Madrid in the Champions League during the week, in which Pep Guardiola’s tactics did not work as usual. Newcastle, on the other hand, celebrated an important 3-2 away win at Birmingham, with Joe Willock in particular shining with a double. It remains to be seen how City will cope with the mental strain of the Champions League defeat – especially since Guardiola recently admitted that his tactical concepts “no longer work as they used to”. You can find out who will ultimately prevail in our Man City – Newcastle betting tip.
Man City – Newcastle info
- Stadium: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
- Date and Time: 15.02.2025, 16:00
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 25
- TV broadcast: SKY
Man City Form & Record Check
Manchester City are currently going through one of the most unusual phases in recent years. The recent 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League once again revealed the team’s defensive vulnerability – a pattern that has been evident in recent games. In all five games, Guardiola’s team have conceded goals, which is highly unusual for their otherwise stable defense.
The Citizens’ offensive power is remarkable, having scored in each of these games. The team has been particularly accurate in the second halves, which is impressively demonstrated by the statistic of 100% goals scored after the break. However, the narrow 2-1 win in the FA Cup against underdogs Leyton Orient and the clear 5-1 defeat at Arsenal show the team’s current inconsistency.
Will City pull ahead?
In fifth place in the table, Manchester City has not yet met its own expectations. Interestingly, they have the same number of points as their upcoming opponents Newcastle, while they are only two points behind Chelsea. Guardiola’s public statements that his “tactics no longer work as they used to” reflect the team’s current phase of finding themselves. One may wonder whether the numerous goals conceded do not underline this thesis.
Man City facts & analysis
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- Have conceded in each of their last five
- City have scored in each of their last five half-time periods
- Only lost two PL home games this season
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Pep Guardiola faces some tricky personnel decisions for the clash against Newcastle. After the 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid, the Catalan coach is likely to stick with the proven 4-1-4-1 system, but will have to improvise due to injuries.
With Rodri (knee) out, an important pillar in defensive midfield is missing, so John Stones could take over the position. The availability of Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji is also still in question.
In attack, goal machine Haaland is set, with De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva likely to pull the creative strings behind him. It will be interesting to see whether Guardiola, based on his latest tactical considerations, will once again focus more on possession or allow his team to counter more.
Newcastle Form Balance Check
Newcastle are going through a remarkably changeable phase, characterized by strong performances in the cup competitions and mixed results in the league. Particularly noteworthy is the convincing success in the League Cup, where the team knocked Arsenal out of the competition with a total score of 4-0 and qualified for the final. Eddie Howe’s team are also showing their quality in the FA Cup, as evidenced by their recent 3-2 away win against Birmingham.
In the Premier League, on the other hand, things are not going entirely to plan. The 2-1 defeat against Fulham and the clear 4-1 defeat against Bournemouth show the team’s defensive weaknesses. Interestingly, Newcastle score in every game – the offense around Alexander Isak works reliably. However, in four of the last five games, the Magpies have conceded at least one goal, which highlights the instability in the defense.
Can the Magpies overtake City?
With 41 points, Newcastle currently share 6th place in the table with Manchester City, while Bournemouth are hot on their heels, just one point behind. Their current form shows two sides: while they have impressed in the cup competitions, they have yet to show the necessary consistency in the league. It remains to be seen whether the team can cope with the multiple pressures of the various competitions and defend their position in the upper half of the table.
Newcastle facts & analysis
- Last PL game lost
- Scored in each of last five games
- Lost last 15 away games at City
Newcastle manager Eddie Howe is expected to stick with the tried and tested 4-3-3 system again. In defense, Trippier could start after his return, while Lascelles (knee injury) is an important option missing. In midfield, Bruno Guimarães is set as the central player and Miley could get another chance.
In attack, it remains to be seen whether Joelinton will be fit in time, but Isak and Gordon could also play a role as alternatives on the wings, while Wilson should play as an attacker in the center.
Man City – Newcastle head to head & statistics
Of the last five meetings between these sides, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have won three, drawn one and lost one.
The most recent meeting in September 2024 ended in a 1-1 draw at Newcastle. Before that, City beat Newcastle 2-0 in the FA Cup in March 2024. The high-scoring Premier League clash in January 2024, when City got the better of their opponents 3-2 away from home, is of interest.
Newcastle managed their only victory in this series in September 2023 in the League Cup with a narrow 1-0 win. In August 2023, City also won the Premier League clash 1-0.
The lack of goals in the second half is striking – in 80% of the encounters, a maximum of 1.5 goals were scored after the break. Overall, the duels tend to be low-scoring: in four out of five games, there were under 2.5 goals.
A recurring pattern: City almost always score in the first half (80% of the time) and Newcastle have major problems defending in the early stages. You might think that Guardiola’s team has found the key to beating the Magpies early on.
