Australian Open in Melbourne, Final, Sunday, 01/26/2025, 9:30 a.m.
Is it finally time? Alexander Zverev wants to secure his first Grand Slam title on Sunday. The Hamburg-born player has already reached the final of a major twice, but was unable to win the title at the US Open 2020 and the French Open 2024.
And now he has to defend himself against the number one, who has not lost a set in the quarter- and semi-finals. Jannik Sinner is currently considered the best hard-court player in the world, having had one of the best seasons of all time on the surface in 2024.
In their head-to-head, however, the German leads 4-2. In my Sinner Zverev betting tip, I am going for the bet that the 27-year-old will win at least two sets. So far, all my Zverev bets from Melbourne have been right! This time, I’m going for odds from Interwetten.
The bookmakers are fairly certain that Zverev will have to wait a little longer for his first title after the final. At odds of 3.15, he is only listed as an underdog in the top sports betting apps, while Sinner has 1.34.
But the South Tyrolean has also been outstanding in recent rounds. Anyone who wants to get a point against him has to take a big risk. The former giant slalom specialist moves around the court with agility and he himself puts the balls in the corners of the opposite side with a lot of power.
Last year, he not only won his first major in Melbourne, but also his second on hard court in New York in 2024, celebrated 54 wins from 57 matches on the surface, and triumphed in the Halle (incidentally unbeaten there) at the ATP Finals.
Meanwhile, Sinner has a poor winning streak of 20 matches, only losing a set to Holger Rune and Tristan Schoolkate at the Australian Open so far, but he has dominated most of his sets. Now also against Zverev?
He has been warned in any case, after all, he has only won two of six matches against the German, the first duel in Paris 2020 and the most recent encounter in the Cincinnati semi-finals. A match – like almost all of them – at eye level!
The last duel ended 7-6, 5-7, 7-6. They were on center court for three hours, which is decent for a three-set match. We’ve also seen almost five hours of Sinner Zverev action, at the US Open 2023.
We didn’t see a clear winner in any of the last three matches, so of course we’re looking at the over 3.5 sets and Winamax has a strong 1.54 for us.
So far, Zverev has always managed to win at least one set against Sinner. This time, I definitely think he can win at least two. The odds are lucrative and are already above 2.00. In terms of playing style, Zverev is, as could be seen in the previous matches, unpleasant.
The Tokyo Olympics champion has a strong first-service ratio, which gives him numerous free points.
Sinner has improved his serve over the years, but he doesn’t have the power and reliability on his first serve, which remained below the 60 percent mark in three rounds. Zverev is already having a bad day when that number falls below 70 percent.
Zverev practiced his serves again after the 69 percent against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals and pinned Djokovic down with three quarters of successful first serves. In addition, Zverev has now developed a good kick over the second serve.
It will be a very difficult task for Sinner on the return, and he himself is likely to be challenged by the 1.98-meter man. Because in 2025 he presents himself more mature and aggressive in his defensive play, which can also be attributed to the basic confidence in his forehand. A shot that was considered Zverev’s Achilles’ heel in recent years.
In numbers: Up until the match against Djokovic, Zverev took 43 percent of the points via his opponents’ service games. He also frequently posed a threat against Djokovic, while at the same time being untouchable in almost all of his own service games.
Only the shot selection was criticized for the five unused break points. Reliable, dangerous serves and a venomous return game – and then there are two things that speak in favor of at least two Zverev sets against the hard-court high-flyer.
He should have the better physique. Sinner has already received treatment several times during the tournament and even had to leave the court for a medical timeout against Rune. According to his own statements, he suffered from slight cramps in the semi-final.
In addition, the night session is played. Although Zverev’s 15 km/h faster serves come a little slower, the balls bounce better at night. For the tall Zverev, for whom the balls slipping even more in the day sessions was a thorn in his side, this is definitely a concession in terms of the comfort zone for his shots.
My Zverev Sinner Tip
Will it be enough for Zverev to win his first Grand Slam title against Sinner? I think so. Sinner’s treatment times alone have shown that he is not in the best physical condition right now, and Zverev has already beaten him four times.
Yes, the victories were before Sinner’s big breakthrough in the fall of 2023, but Zverev has also developed his game a lot.
In fact, he no longer has any clear weaknesses; in some situations, I lack the game intelligence compared to the competition, as in the five unused break points against Djokovic, for example.
But that’s complaining at a very high tennis level. He is the better server than Sinner, will get the South Tyrolean involved in many long rallies in his service games and, with his currently better physique, will win his first major title over the course of the match! I am convinced of that.
Nevertheless, I prefer to hedge my bets with the +1.5 set handicap for the German, which also offers very strong odds!
My Sinner Zverev betting tip: Zverev win +1.5 set handicap
