Southampton – Newcastle United
Our Southampton – Newcastle tip is: Newcastle to win – 1.40 – odds
- Southampton are in last place
- With 50 goals conceded, Southampton have the worst defense in the league
- Newcastle are undefeated by Southampton in their last eight games (seven wins and one draw)
On Saturday afternoon, St. Mary’s Stadium will host a clash of extremes: bottom-placed Southampton host in-form Newcastle United. The Saints are deep in the relegation battle with just six points and the gap to safety is widening – they are currently already eight points behind Leicester. The latest 2-3 defeat at Nottingham Forest was already the fifth defeat in a row for Ivan Juric’s team.
Newcastle, on the other hand, suffered a surprising setback last weekend when they lost 4-1 at home to Bournemouth. Nevertheless, Eddie Howe’s team are in a strong 6th place, level on points with Manchester City. You might think that the Magpies have something to make up for after this defeat – interestingly, there is a perfect opportunity to do so against the bottom-placed team. The question will be whether Southampton finally manages to turn things around or whether Newcastle, as expected, finds its way back to winning ways. Find out which team will come out on top in our Southampton v Newcastle prediction.
Southampton v Newcastle info
- Venue: St. Mary’s Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
- Date and Time: 25.01.2025, 16:00
- Competition: Premier League, 23rd matchday
- TV broadcast: SKY
Southampton form & record check
Southampton are in an alarming crisis of form and are currently showing all the signs of a classic relegation candidate. The last few weeks have been marked by disastrous performances, as the 5-0 home defeat to Brentford impressively demonstrated. The recent performances at Manchester United (1-3) and Nottingham Forest (3-2) also revealed blatant defensive weaknesses – in the last five league games, the team has conceded a whopping 14 goals.
Interestingly, the Saints did manage a convincing 3-0 FA Cup win over Swansea in between, underlining the team’s inconsistency. However, this bright spot cannot hide the fact that the team is stuck at the bottom of the table with just six points. They are already ten points off the safety line – a worrying situation.
A lot needs to change
You might think that the recently announced loan signing of Albert Groenbaek is a step in the right direction. But it will take a lot more than a few personnel changes to fix the glaring problems in defense. The statistics speak for themselves: in each of the last four league games, the team has conceded at least two goals – a rate that virtually guarantees relegation.
Southampton facts & analysis
- League position: 20
- Last 5 matches: Five defeats
- Weakest defense in the Premier League (50 goals conceded)
Southampton are expected to stick with the proven 3-4-1-2 system against Newcastle as well. Coach Ivan Juric will continue to be without the injured Stewart, while Dibling and Stephens are also unavailable. Ramsdale is likely to be given preference in goal again. The back three could consist of Bree, Bednarek and Harwood-Bellis, as they did last time out. Sugawara and Walker-Peters should provide pace on the flanks, while Downes and Aribo pull the strings in central midfield. Interestingly, Mateus Fernandes seems to have established himself in the number 10 role. In attack, the well-rehearsed duo of Armstrong and Archer could start again, with Brereton ready as an alternative.
Newcastle Form & Balance Check
Newcastle are enjoying a remarkable run of form, having won four of their last five matches, including an impressive 2-0 away win over Arsenal in the League Cup. Eddie Howe’s team have been particularly impressive in offense, scoring at least once in all five matches, with Alexander Isak proving to be a clinical finisher.
The recent 4-1 home defeat to Bournemouth seems like a timely warning. After four wins in a row, the team was completely overrun, with unfamiliar weaknesses emerging, especially in defense. Interestingly, despite this setback, Newcastle are level on points with Manchester City in 6th place in the table – a testament to their otherwise consistently strong performances.
Early Pressing
What stands out: The Magpies show their qualities especially in the first half, in all of their last five games they have scored at least once before half-time. With Bruno Guimarães as a precise distributor of the ball in the midfield, the team has found its playful line. It will be interesting to see how the team responds to the setback against Bournemouth – they definitely have the quality to make amends quickly.
Newcastle facts & analysis
- Table position: 6
- Last 5 games: Four wins and one loss
- Newcastle are without a number of players through injury
Newcastle are expected to field a 4-3-3 formation, although the many injuries could result in some changes to the starting lineup. Interestingly, manager Eddie Howe is still without first-choice goalkeeper Pope, meaning Dúbravka will be between the posts. The defense could be rearranged after the resounding 4-1 defeat to Bournemouth – possibly with Trippier returning to the starting lineup. In midfield, Bruno Guimarães and Tonali will likely form the core, while Isak should spearhead the offense after his strong form. Wilson is out through injury, which limits the options in attack. It is safe to assume that Gordon and Murphy will occupy the wings.
Southampton – Newcastle Head to Head & Statistics
