AC Milan – Cagliari
Our AC Milan – Cagliari prediction is: Both teams score & over 3.5 goals – 3.25 odds
- The bet would have been successful in four of the last five duels
- The first leg ended 3:3
- Cagliari with the worst defense in the league
After the emotional Super Cup triumph against Inter Milan (3:2), AC Milan want to prove their rising form in the Serie A as well. The new coach Sérgio Conceição, who was able to celebrate a title in his first game, welcomes Cagliari, a supposedly manageable opponent, to the Giuseppe Meazza on Saturday evening.
The Rossoneri, currently eighth in the table and just one point behind Bologna, could move closer to the international places again with a win.
The visitors from Sardinia, on the other hand, are in a relegation battle – in 17th place, just one point separates them from their direct rivals Como. Although Cagliari managed an important 2-1 win at Monza last time out, their form is clearly on a downward trend, having lost four of their last five games.
It will be interesting to see whether coach Davide Nicola’s team can carry the momentum from the Monza game with them or whether Milan will continue their upward trend after their derby win. You can find out more about this in our AC Milan – Cagliari betting tip.
AC Milan – Cagliari info
- Date & Time: 11/01/2025, 20:45
- Venue: Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 20
- TV broadcast/livestream: DAZN
AC Milan form & record check
AC Milan are currently in impressive form and have just caused a sensation with two impressive victories in the Italian Super Cup. In particular, the 3-2 win over city rivals Inter in the final was a real feat of strength, with new coach Sérgio Conceição’s team demonstrating great mental strength. After trailing 2-0, Milan turned the game around with goals from Theo Hernández, Christian Pulisić and Tammy Abraham.
The defense is back
Although the Rossoneri are currently only in eighth place in the Serie A table, they are only one point behind Bologna. Interestingly, the team has not lost a single game in their last five competitive matches – three wins and two draws indicate a positive development. Their defensive stability is particularly striking: in four of these five games, Milan have only conceded one goal at most.
With new coach Conceição, Milan seems to be returning to its former strength. The team appears tactically solid and, especially in offense, with players like Pulisić and Reijnders, who are known for their shooting accuracy, they are a real threat. It will be interesting to see whether this positive trend can be continued in the league – the two Super Cup victories against top teams such as Juventus (2:1) and Inter should certainly provide a decent tailwind.
AC Milan facts & analysis
- Unbeaten in six games
- Only conceded twice in the last six games
- First leg ended 3:3
Cagliari form & record check
Cagliari’s current form shows a team in the relegation battle that was able to gain some breathing space after a series of four defeats last weekend with an important 2-1 away win against Monza. It was their first win after a series of defeats, which included a 3-0 loss to Inter and a 4-0 defeat in the cup against Juventus.
The Sardinians’ defense is particularly worrying, having conceded goals in each of the last five games without exception, and they seem particularly vulnerable in the second halves. With just 17 points, the team of coach Davide Nicola is in 17th place in the table – level on points with Lecce lurking behind them and just one point behind Como. The relegation battle promises to be highly exciting.
Victory against Monza only luck?
To be honest, the recent improvement in performance in the game against Monza must also be put into perspective: the victory came about after a red card for the opponent. The fundamental problems in defense remain and it remains to be seen whether the success really marks a turning point. The rumors surrounding the possible departure of goalkeeper Simone Scuffet to Napoli could further complicate an already tense situation.
Cagliari facts & analysis
- Six defeats in the last seven games
- Won the last league game
- Worst defense in the league
After the successful Super Cup game against Inter, the mood at AC Milan is excellent. In the upcoming league game against Cagliari, coach Conceição will probably stick to the proven 4-3-3 system. The probable starting lineup could be as follows:
It will be interesting to see if Pulišić starts on the right wing again after his excellent performance in the Super Cup. Fofana is an important player in the midfield because his passing accuracy could overcome Cagliari’s compact defense. In attack, Morata has improved a lot recently and is expected to liven up the offensive play alongside Rafael Leão, who has recovered from minor injuries. However, tactical adjustments are possible as Conceição may have planned some changes to regenerate the players after the intense Super Cup final.
Based on their last performances, Cagliari are likely to line up in a 4-4-2 system again. It will be interesting to see if coach Nicola makes any personnel changes after the 3-1 defeat to Monza.
Scuffet is set in goal, with Zappa, Mina, Luperto and Obert likely to form the back four in front of him. In midfield, Gaetano could start in place of the recently struggling Felici, alongside the established Makoumbou and Adopo. Zortea is likely to start on the left.
On the offensive side, the duo Viola/Piccoli is expected, although the experienced Pavoletti is also lurking for his chance.
AC Milan – Cagliari head to head & statistics
It is interesting to look at the last few duels between Milan and Cagliari. The last comparison in November 2024 ended surprisingly with a 3-3 draw – the first point split after four Milan wins in a row. Before that, Milan dominated with a clear 5-1 home win in May 2024.
The high goal count in the most recent encounters is striking. At least four goals were scored in four of the last five duels. Particularly noteworthy was the cup game in January 2024, which Milan won 4-1.
The Rossoneri have been extremely clinical in the direct duels – they have scored at least one goal in all five games. Interestingly, this streak was only broken by the high-scoring 3-3 in November, before which Milan had recorded four consecutive wins.
Cagliari, on the other hand, have not beaten Milan in over 1000 days. However, the last encounter in November is encouraging – for the first time in a while, they were able to more than just stand up to the favorites.
To be honest, Milan’s clear dominance in this fixture doesn’t really come as a surprise. But the recent draw shows that Cagliari is definitely capable of giving the favorites a run for their money.
Head to Head (H2H)
