ATP Finals, 1st day of play, Monday, 11/11/2024, 2:00 pm
It’s that time again: the year’s best tennis players are meeting in Turin to compete for a major title for the last time this year! The ATP Finals have enjoyed great popularity for years, with the absolute crème de la crème playing against each other.
In my current duel, I find myself in the David versus Goliath category – yes, that’s also possible at the finals! And I’ll tell you straight away: I agree with the bookmakers’ prediction. Why is a clear victory realistic? I’ll tell you in my Alcaraz Ruud tip!
Carlos Alcaraz has actually already won everything at just 21 years old. Well, he’s not an Olympic champion yet, but that tournament only comes around every four years. But otherwise, he must have won every other title there is.
Admittedly, it sometimes seems as if we have been following the Spaniard around for a decade, he has been so successful right from the start. There are still a few places he hasn’t left as a champion.
One of them is in Turin. The ATP Finals have been held there since 2017, but Alcaraz himself was there for the first time in 2023. A defeat against Alexander Zverev, victories against Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev, and he played his way into the semi-finals.
Once there, Novak Djokovic ended his title dreams. So now the Spaniard is reaching for the crown again, but he is also aware that the last few months have been anything but easy, with very mixed results.
In Paris, he was knocked out in the round of 16 by Ugo Humbert, and before that, in Shanghai, he lost to Tomas Machac. Since his triumph at Wimbledon, his form has been on a downward slope, and at the US Open, he was also knocked out in the second round.
Of course, Alcaraz has won a lot in 2024, but he has also had a few disappointments to deal with. In Turin, he is also “only” competing as the world number three, because Alexander Zverev overtook him a few weeks ago.
At least the Spaniard is now taking on one of his favorite opponents. He has met Casper Ruud four times in the course of his career, winning all four duels, three of them without losing a set.
On average, a 1.09 meets a 7.20, and that at the finals, where only the world’s elite compete! However, Casper Ruud has only himself to blame for being the rank outsider.
The Norwegian has not had an easy year, and has mostly fallen short of his own expectations. I’ll start with the positive part, which should give Ruud confidence.
He is competing in the finals for the third time (not participating in 2023), and has never been knocked out in the preliminary round. In 2022, he lost the final to Novak Djokovic, a year earlier he was stopped in the semi-finals by Daniil Medvedev.
The preparation for these finals? It was more than sluggish. In Metz, he lost to Benjamin Bonzi right at the start, in Paris he lost to Jordan Thompson in the first round. Since the US Open, where he made it to the round of 16, he has won exactly ONE match!
The only player he has managed to beat in the last two months is Lorenzo Sonego, and for the world number seven that is, of course, completely unacceptable. He is not in the right shape at all, so Ruud will have to hope that his strong opponents in Turin long for the winter break.
My Alcaraz Ruud tip
At first glance, everything points to a clear victory for Carlos Alcaraz over Casper Ruud – and at second glance too! True, neither player has been in top form in recent weeks.
But in Ruud’s case, I would almost go so far as to call it a crisis, because he is now only losing. Alcaraz wants to reach the final for the first time at the Finals and is also 4-0 up against Ruud. Since he won three straight games, I decided on the following tip:
Alcaraz beats Ruud without a tiebreak!
