Shanghai Masters, Final, Sunday, 13.10.2024, 10:30 am
Summit meeting in the Shanghai final! Jannik Sinner takes on the most successful player in the sport, Novak Djokovic. Neither player showed any weakness in the semi-finals and won in two sets.
Sinner and Djokovic last played a thrilling match at the Australian Open, in the semi-finals. This was followed by the first Grand Slam triumph for the young South Tyrolean, who is greeting from the world number one spot, where Djokovic has spent the longest of all at 428 weeks.
In this absolute top match, I expect the top seed to win in the end, and in my Sinner Djokovic betting tip at Bet365 I choose success in the match and first set for Sinner.
This could be another very interesting match, Sinner against Djokovic, which we haven’t had since January. Before that, however, the two superstars of the sport played out a few duels in a row. Including at the last ATP Finals.
While Sinner had the upper hand in the group phase in Turin, the Serb prevailed in the final and did so in emphatic fashion, winning 6-3, 6-3. It was not the day of the young South Tyrolean, who then left almost nothing to be desired on hard court.
Six days after the ATP Finals, Sinner beat Djokovic in the Davis Cup and then in the Australian Open semi-finals. A match where Sinner had one of his most dramatic outbursts of anger, at least by his standards.
He very gently knocked over a water bottle after losing the third set. The clip is still circulating on the net today. One of the few moments in which Sinner shows a negative emotion in a match.
Mindset is his greatest strength for me. He always manages to refocus on every point and never loses his composure.
He is more composed than any other player on tour, especially when it comes to break points, and has the best under pressure rating on tour with 257.1. He fends off 73.2 percent of break points against him.
Incidentally, he has only lost one service game against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Shanghai. The man who chases his opponents around the court with precise changes of direction and is quick to win points will once again be a real challenge for the “Djoker”.
The oddsmakers agree. Oddset is offering 1.45 for Sinner to win, while Djokovic starts as an underdog in the 2.70 range, albeit only as an easy one.
I’m assuming the Italian will win, but the odds are too low for me. Instead, I’ve set my sights on victory with Bet365 with a win in the first set. The betting provider offers 1.69 without tax for this.
After all, Sinner has won three of the last four matches and I feel that he has become even stronger this year, which is no great surprise. At the age of 23, he is still in the development phase. There were tips from Djokovic, among others.
In hindsight, does he regret having advised the young Sinner to “make his game more unpredictable/versatile”? In fact, this is one of the areas in which Sinner has gone one better, one of many.
The bare statistics are also impressive in 2024. 48 hard court matches, 45 of which he won. This year he has only lost to Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells and Beijing and to Andrey Rublev in the quarter-finals of Montreal, where he was not really fit.
Djokovic has been playing his first tournament since the US Open, in the meantime only playing one Davis Cup match for Serbia, a 6-0, 6-1 friendly against Ioannis Xilas.
He faced more resistance in Shanghai, but so far only Jakub Mensik has managed to take a set off him.
Incidentally, I recommended an over 19.5 game bet for the match in my corresponding prediction for the game. I also gave you the same bet in my Sinner Machac tip. Here, too, I had the right instinct. Sinner needed 22 games for the decision.
However, the over-games market isn’t really tempting this time, as the bookmakers don’t have an outright favorite.
Alex Michelsen, Flavio Cobolli, Roman Safiullin, Jakub Mensik and Taylor Fritz – Djokovic has not yet had to get the really big names out of the way. In some sets it was very shaky at times, especially when the opponents’ offensive shots were hit regularly.
My Sinner Djokovic tip
Sinner has won three of the last four matches against Djokovic and has become even stronger this year. Like Sinner, Djokovic is playing a strong tournament in Shanghai, but he hasn’t had many strong opponents.
His opponent in the final has an almost flawless hardcourt record and has also always got off to a good start in seven of his last eight matches, bagging the first set. I think his level of play is currently above Djokovic’s, be it his serve, mentality, agility…
Sinner leaves nothing to chance, goes straight on the offensive when his opponent gets too short, but also masters the long rallies and, thanks to Djokovic’s advice, he sometimes breaks the rhythm of the rally unexpectedly.
I’m convinced that he’ll show the veteran his limits tomorrow…
My Sinner Djokovic tip: Set 1 & Match Sinner
