US Open 2024, Round of 16, Tuesday, 03.09.2024, 02:30
Novak Djokovic? Out! Carlos Alcaraz? Out! After the two top favorites for the US Open 2024 caused a real upset and embarrassed themselves, the role of the hottest title contender now falls entirely to Jannik Sinner.
The Italian has shown himself to be quite confident so far and is also clearly ahead in the round of 16, even though his opponent is number 14 in the world rankings. In my Sinner Paul tip, I will now tell you why it could make sense to bet on the next outright win!
When both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz bow out of a Grand Slam tournament before the round of 16, it really isn’t what the normal tennis fan knows as everyday life.
The impossible actually happened. Both embarrassed themselves against underdogs, giving Jannik Sinner the chance to win his second major within a year. The role of favorite is quickly transferred to South Tyrol.
It’s hard to believe that the world number 1 actually lost the first set of the tournament. However, he quickly recovered from 2-6 down against Mackenzie McDonald and won 2-6, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 in the end.
He was much more confident against Alex Michelsen, winning 6-4, 6-0, 6-2. While he had given up eleven break chances against McDonald, he only had five in the second match
And finally there was the match against Christopher O’Connell, the strongest of the three competitors. 6-1, 6-4, 6-2, not a single break opportunity surrendered, 80% of points won on first serve and 76% on second serve, that’s the Sinner we all know!
The 23-year-old obviously needed a little while to really find his feet in the tournament, but of course you can’t blame him. In any case, it’s difficult to find facts that don’t make him the clear favorite for the duel on Monday night.
The 2024 champion from Cincinnati succeeds in almost everything, defeats are incredibly rare. So I have to highlight it when he wobbles precariously in a 7-6, 5-7, 7-6 against Alexander Zverev and pulls off a very narrow victory.
Before the start of the US Open, one might have thought that the doping scandal could cost him his sovereignty, but Sinner seems to be able to completely ignore the events and concentrate on the sporting side of things
He has already met Tommy Paul, his next opponent, three times and leads 2:1 in the direct comparison. In 2022, both collected one win each, with the favorite winning outright last year.
According to our bookmakers, it shouldn’t be that close on Monday night. In any case, the odds are 1.15 to 5.00, so even in the Oddset app, a pure Sinner victory is not profitable.
As number 14 in the world, Tommy Paul is at least theoretically in a position to hold his own. He is in the last 16 of the US Open for only the second time since 2023 and has never made it further.
However, it should also be mentioned here that Jannik Sinner has only once played a US Open quarter-final, so he also knows exactly what pitfalls this major has. This tournament has been a little bumpier for Paul
He won 6-4, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 against Lorenzo Sonego, but conceded 13 break chances. A few days later, Marc Purcell was waiting. After an exhausting 7-5 in the first set, his opponent’s health was exhausted, 6-0, 1-0, it was a walk in the park into the next round.
Gabriel Diallo from Canada presented Paul with a challenge in the third round that was not really on the cards. In the end, the favorite won 6-7, 6-3, 6-1, 7-6, but had to work hard at times.
Seven double faults, only 60% successful first serves, 15 break opportunities for his opponent – this was not a really confident performance! Paul was already lacking top form in Cincinnati, losing to Flavio Cobolli right at the start.
After his quarter-final at Wimbledon, he won just one match at the Canadian Open and doesn’t seem to feel really comfortable on hard courts again. The US-American will know: Against a Jannik Sinner on Monday night, everything really should be right!
My Sinner Paul tip
If everything goes according to plan, Jannik Sinner will soon be looking forward to reaching the quarter-finals. The South Tyrolean has long since got his slight problems at the start of the tournament under control, and his 3rd round in particular was incredibly confident.
Tommy Paul, on the other hand, didn’t quite convince me. Too many easy mistakes, too often bringing his opponent back into the match unnecessarily – he can’t afford to do that in the round of 16. The following tip therefore also seems sensible to me:
Sinner wins easily against Paul!
