Basketball Olympics, quarter-finals, Tuesday, 06.08.2024, 21:30
As the best team in the preliminary round, the almost illegally good USA team has been assigned the weakest quarter-finalist in terms of ranking.
Accordingly, my USA Brazil betting tip might surprise you a little at first. However, you should also have noticed that the North Americans will only pick up the pace in phases (but they will do so strongly)
If you’re wondering why Joel Embiid is booed mercilessly by the French crowd whenever he’s on the ball, you should know the following background:
Embiid became a naturalized citizen two years ago so that he could play for France in Paris in 2024. But shortly before the start of the tournament, he decided he didn’t want to play for the hosts after all.
No wonder, because when he found out which star ensemble the USA would be fielding at the Olympics and that he could be part of the show, he reconsidered his decision
On the floor, meanwhile, the USA dominated the group stage. They had a few lulls here and there, but whenever they got into trouble, they catapulted themselves back into the lead with at least one supernatural quarter.
It is simply incredible how much pressure the “Dream Team 2.0” can build up over 40 minutes, as they can continually bring fresh superstars off the bench.
It’s a little reminiscent of the movie “Field of Dreams” with Kevin Costner when all the great baseball players of the past appear on the sidelines to take part in the action.
At least that’s what I remember about USA basketball games when I see Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant standing on the sidelines after about seven to eight minutes
The only thing I can say about Brazil in two words is: Nothing extraordinary!
The South Americans were at least competitive against France (66:78) and Germany (73:86), but lacked the big difference-maker.
Their progress was made possible by a 102:84 victory over Japan on the final day of group play. While that is commendable, it does not leave the impression that Brazil have what it takes to pose a serious threat to the USA on Tuesday.
The USA’s showpiece is not so much their offense, but rather their strong defense. Accordingly, I am following a very specific betting pattern.
The North Americans will most likely win. But as soon as they have a comfortable 20-point lead, they usually tend to shift down a gear.
However, the bookmakers have set odds of 1.90 for the scenario that the USA will win against Brazil by 27.5 points, just like against Puerto Rico.
But I say “No, thank you” to that – and you should too! Because despite their great playing quality, they have not yet won a game at this Olympiad with such a point difference
Personally, I expect the USA to let it slip again in places and only shift up to 6th gear temporarily when needed.
So far, they have only won all four quarters of a game against Serbia – and possibly only because they saw the Balkan ballers as equal opponents.
In all their other games, however, they have conceded at least one quarter. In the game against Puerto Rico, they even only won half of all periods
As a result, shortly before the tip-off, I’m leaning strongly towards the offer from bookmaker Betano, which is offering odds of around 1.45 if the USA don’t win all quarters.
Incidentally, you can sweeten this offer even more if you also take advantage of the attractive Betano new customer bonus from the bookie of the same name
Conclusion: It should be taken for granted that the North Americans will qualify for the semi-finals.
However, I highly doubt that they will keep up the pressure throughout all four periods.
Especially if they are 30 points ahead at the break, it is highly likely that they will rotate and conserve their strength early on.
That has been the case in all their games so far, with the exception of the opening match against Serbia.
However, now that the decisive games are taking place at ever shorter intervals, I expect that they will no longer make any unnecessary efforts.
Especially as Kevin Durant and LeBron James are no longer the youngest
My tip: No team wins all quarters
