Wimbledon, semi-finals, Friday, 12.07.2024, 14:30
The mission to defend the title continues! Carlos Alcaraz is the big favorite for the Wimbledon trophy, but recently took a deep breath that he can still be there at all. Next stop: the semi-finals.
On Friday, he will face the man who took the world number 1 out of the tournament – and is still the clear favorite. I’ll tell you in my Medvedev Alcaraz tip why I still think that three sets won’t be enough here!
That was close, and for the third time in a row! Carlos Alcaraz seems to have sworn off outright victories in the English capital for the time being, preferring to put on a show or two for the crowd.
The Spaniard, who won here for the first time in 2023, had already been unusually unfocused in the first round against Mark Lajal, when he won 7-6, 7-6, 6-2. Two weak sets? In round 2 he at least reduced that to one.
7-6, 6-2, 6-2 against Aleksandar Vukic, it was nothing more than a must-win. But now I come to the really interesting performances, which perhaps provide information as to why Alcaraz is currently allowing more than usual.
For example, the match in the 3rd round against Frances Tiafoe. Although the American has been in a form crisis for months, Alcaraz needed all five sets to win 5-7, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2!
Ugo Humbert was also able to upset him, although the world No. 3 only dropped one set in a 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 defeat. He was not entirely satisfied when he finally met Tommy Paul in the round of the best eight.
Was it because of his nationality that he lost the first set, as he had against Tiafoe before? At least Alcaraz rallied and came away with a well-deserved 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 win.
So how do we rate his performances so far? Let’s put it this way, he seems to have everything under control in terms of the result, but also gives his opponents a relatively large amount of space.
Admittedly, he could have finished much quicker against Tommy Paul, as Alcaraz only used eight of his 27 break chances. 10-13-10? These figures illustrate how often his last three opponents could have broken
Alcaraz is not someone who is going to hit ace after ace over the net or really shine in the service game. Winning points on the first serve? In the past three matches, he reached 70% once!
Fortunately, in the semi-final against Daniil Medvedev it won’t just come down to his serve. The two top stars already met on the sacred turf in 2023, also in the semi-finals.
The clear result: 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 for Alcaraz, who also bagged the title a little later. The Spaniard has a 4-2 lead in the head-to-head, has won four of the last five duels – and could therefore be favored.
The bookmakers have him ahead with odds of 1.27 to 3.50. Speaking of bookmakers, Alcaraz must have been delighted that Spain reached the final of Euro 2024.
Daniil Medvedev achieved what very few expected of him in the quarter-finals at Wimbledon: he won against Jannik Sinner, the world number 1! The spectators were treated to a five-set showdown.
6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 6-3, the Russian fought for hours for his ticket to the semi-finals. And he did so despite making eleven double faults! Was it the extra portion of rest?
His round of 16 match was over in no time at all, with his opponent Grigor Dimitrov having to retire injured at 5-3. Medvedev only came through once, in round 1 against Aleksandar Kovacevic (6-3, 6-4, 6-2).
He had to play both Jan-Lennard Struff (6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6) and Alexandre Müller (6-7, 7-6, 6-4, 7-5, it was particularly close here). He obviously prefers to play against the bigger names here in London
My Medvedev Alcaraz tip
Will Daniil Medvedev reach a final at Wimbledon for the first time in his career? The 2023 semi-final (loss to Alcaraz) is his greatest success to date. After sending Jannik Sinner home, he is certainly capable of anything.
Of course, we all know Carlos Alcaraz’s qualities. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the Spaniard showed a few problems in the last three rounds. Ultimately, I think both of them are too strong to leave the pitch with an outright defeat, which is why I’m betting on them:
We’ll see more than 3.5 sets!
