Wimbledon, 3rd round, Saturday, 06.07.2024, 14:30
I’ve never seen Alexander Zverev this good on grass. After the parade performance against Roberto Carballes Baena, he also won 3:0 against Marcos Giron in a rush, confident service games, strong in the return and in defense, that could still be very interesting.
The bookmakers are also impressed, and the German’s tournament win odds have already been lowered. He will have to do without the support in the stands in round three on Saturday. He will face local hero Cameron Norrie.
In my Norrie Zverev betting tip, I expect the world number four to win the next round. Bet365 once again delivers top odds:
“I’m sorry that I have to break your hearts on Saturday,” said Zverev with a broad smile on his face to the crowd on court number one after his victory against Marcos Giron. “I hope that you can love me again after a while.”
The German, who now faces local player Cameron Norrie, was celebrated frenetically by the fans and presented an outstanding match against Giron. The US-American found no means against Zverev, who, as in round one, drove his opponent to despair.
It was Zverev’s sixth grass court match this year, so far he has only dropped one service game, in Halle against Hubert Hurkacz. He is still flawless at Wimbledon, 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 against Carballes Baena, 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 against Giron, no other player dominated the first rounds like Zverev.
Will the grass still be his great love in 2024, bringing him his first Grand Slam title? Before the tournament, I would have strongly doubted it. But the Hamburg-born player is clearly coming up trumps, while the top favorites Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic are not infallible.
67 percent first serves are actually a weak figure for Zverev, who averages over 70 percent. The 1.98 meter man plays more first serves into the targeted court than anyone else in the world.
Giron was unable to create a break chance. Zverev, on the other hand, took six service games from his opponent, snatching every second point when Giron served. He only gave up every fifth point himself when he had to serve for the match.
Twelve aces with two double faults rounded off his impressive performance. Will it continue just as successfully? The top bookmakers, who also have a wide range of odds on the two European Championship quarter-finals on Saturday evening, think so
Zverev gets a 1.13 at Bet365, Norrie is in the 5.00 range. Is there no value there? The situation is different with a bet on a third outright win for Zverev, for which the betting provider offers 2.20 without tax. 1.33 is available for the -1.5 set HC.
However, I did well with the 3:0 for Zverev in the first rounds, wrote a prediction for both matches and hit the bull’s eye. At the level he played against Giron, Norrie won’t stand a chance either, that’s for sure.
Norrie is currently ranked 42nd in the world and reached his highest ranking of eighth in 2022. But the Brit was unable to maintain that level. He has celebrated his greatest successes on clay and hard court, but on the green he has a win rate of just 48 percent.
Before Wimbledon, he failed to reach the second round of the Nottingham Challenger and had to retire in the first round at the Queens Club and in Eastbourne. Nobody could have predicted that he would beat Stuttgart winner and compatriot Jack Draper in three sets at Wimbledon
In the tiebreaks, he played his experience to the advantage of the six years younger Draper, Draper was unable to call up his top performance and appeared unusually nervous. He was particularly vulnerable on his second serve, with 70 percent of the points going to Norrie.
Draper assisted with seven scattered double faults. Norrie had previously taken Facundo Diaz Acosta off the court, a grateful draw. The Argentinian only made use of his world ranking to get into the Grand Slam, conceding his fourth outright defeat in his fourth grass court match of his career.
Norrie versus Zverev – we’ve already had this duel at a Grand Slam this year. In the round of 16 of the Australian Open, a five-set thriller. Back then, I put a 2.05 on Zverev winning in combination with at least one tiebreak, which was also a successful bet.
It was also the last encounter and win number five for Zverev in their seventh meeting, and it was also the fifth success in a row. Norrie only won the matches in 2013 and 2014, his last victory was over ten years ago against Germany’s number one!
My Norrie Zverev tip
Zverev played a flawless match against Giron. Unchallenged service games, strong returns, good defensive work. His opponent couldn’t find a solution. This should also break Norrie, who has lost the last five duels against Zverev, four of them outright.
Norrie is also 19 places behind Giron in the service stats and has not even won every other match on the green in his career. He gives away a lot of points on the second serve in particular and has already conceded six breaks.
I see a considerable difference in quality in this aspect, among others, and serves are the basis on grass. For comparison: Zverev has conceded one service game in six grass matches in 2024.
While Zverev has resembled a service machine since switching to serving at a slightly lower pace for a significantly better first serve rate, Norrie is faltering. At the same time, the German is the safe return player and, despite his height of 1.98 meters, is quicker and more agile on the court. I expect another visible difference in class on grass court tennis!
My Norrie Zverev tip: 3:0 Zverev
