Wimbledon, 2nd round, Wednesday, 03.07.2024, 12:00
There’s a cracker waiting for us in the second round of Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner meets his compatriot Matteo Berrettini. It’s a duel between the two Italians who performed best for their nation in the 2020s.
Berrettini is regarded as an excellent grass court player and reached the Wimbledon final against Novak Djokovic in 2021. A number of injuries set him back and he is seen as the clear underdog against the world number one.
But it’s unlikely to be a quick run-through, the set win odds for the underdog at Winamax are impressive. That would therefore be my Sinner Berrettini tip:
46 wins from 58 matches, a win rate of 79 percent on grass. Berrettini wants to attack again this year at Wimbledon and has prepared for the most important tournament of the season in Stuttgart, where he played Jack Draper in the final, and in Halle.
He reached the final in Stuttgart, losing just one set, but then lost narrowly to Draper. He had less success in Halle and was unable to follow up his opening victory over Alex Michelsen with a win against Marcos Giron. Nevertheless, that’s five wins in seven games!
The form curve is clearly pointing upwards, which is an impressive performance considering Berrettini had to take another injury break after the Masters in Monaco! After all, after two months without match practice, he went straight back into a final at the Boss Open
In Wimbledon, he faced Marton Fucsovics in the first round, only allowing himself one weakness in the third set, but then adding to it in the fourth set with a final score of 7-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1. In total, he only conceded one service game over four sets, converting a strong 81 percent of his first serves into points.
At 5.60, Winamax sees him clearly trailing ahead of his second task against superstar Sinner (1.14). The high odds difference opens up the possibility of betting on Berrettini winning the set at 1.76, a top odds in my eyes!
Berrettini gets through many service games without any major problems. I trust him to serve consistently for at least one set. In his last successes, he got at least two thirds of his dangerous first serves over the net
And if his service returns are consistent, Sinner will have to come through with error-free service games himself to be able to challenge Berrettini for the set. The South Tyrolean, who won this year’s Australian Open and thus his first major, is there in the match-deciding moments, but has repeatedly dropped a set recently.
During his tournament victory in Halle, he lost one set in his first three matches against Tallon Griekspoor, Fabian Marozsan and Jan-Lennard Struff. And Hanfmann also snatched a set against the new world number one in the three-set victory at Wimbledon.
I believe that all of the opponents mentioned, who have already won a set against Sinner on grass in a two-set victory system, are still behind Berrettini in terms of playing strength on the green surface and the Roman has more time to bag a set
You can also play the set win odds for Berrettini at Winamax without any risk. A mega offer is waiting for you there as part of Euro 2024. New customers will receive freebet credit in the amount of their deposit and the promotion is valid up to 200 euros, which you can also use in tennis.
The 1.76 would result in a net profit of 152 euros! You then only have to wager your real money at minimum odds of 1.05 before you can withdraw it. Of all the free bet offers I’ve seen from betting providers so far, this is clearly the best.
Incidentally, Sinner and Berrettini have only met once before. Last August, Sinner gave his compatriot no chance on the hard court in Toronto, winning 6-4, 6-3. I expect a closer match on grass!
Alternatively, you can also take the 1.88 odds for over 3.5 sets, but the odds jump is not immense enough for me to rule out the 3:0 for Berrettini
My Sinner Berrettini tip
39 wins from 43 games, a record that will strike fear into the hearts of Sinner’s opponents, who has only been beaten by Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas and has in fact only been beaten three times in matches.
He did not play in the fourth defeat due to injury. On grass, his vest is still white after his first grass tournament triumph.
However, he has allowed himself a weakness in one phase or another, losing tie-breaks against Struff and Griekspoor, and he also failed to play at a consistent level against Hanfmann in his Wimbledon opener.
Berrettini has six wins from eight matches, reached the final at Wimbledon 2021, has already won four grass court tournaments in his career and was in good form at the start of the tournament, conceding just one break.
That’s why I’m going with the Sinner Berrettini tip: Set win Berrettini
