NBA Playoffs 2023/24, 1st round, Game 4, Tuesday, 30.04.2024
In the NBA play-offs, the purple and gold should be able to do something that no team in the history of North American basketball has ever managed to do, namely overturn a 3-0 deficit.
The Californians have taken a step in this direction, but my Nuggets Lakers tip is that it will stay that way. Because the defending champions are now back in the ball arena, where they are simply far too ripped off to be duped by the LAL again.
The Lakers found a way to avoid a so-called “sweep” over the weekend. By winning 119:108, they managed to cut the deficit to 1:3 and thus avoid an early play-off exit.
The decisive factor was that LeBron James stepped into the breach for his team in this dicey situation and, together with Anthony Davis, conjured up 55 of the 119 Lakers points on the board.
However, the Nuggets didn’t look to me like they were playing with the same intensity as in Games 1 to 3. Maybe they already know they’re doomed to win this series…
Here’s LAL’s predicament “before” their win: The Lakers have to win four in a row against a team that has already beaten them 11 times in a row.
An almost impossible mission, then – especially since teams that are 0-3 in a best-of-seven series have a combined record of 0 wins and 151 losses.
As for the future of the franchise and LeBron James’ legacy in particular? That’s completely irrelevant in regards to Tuesday! Because if they lose this game, the purple and gold will be relegated from the Olympus of top NBA teams for good.
Now that the series has been shipped back to Denver and the Nuggets are going to step it up a notch, I can’t see them not closing the bag.
Jamal Murray is simply far too strong for that. His play with Nikola Jokic is what’s hurting LAL at the boards, even though they amazingly beat the Nuggets by 20 points in the paint last Saturday.
But like I said, I couldn’t shake the feeling that the defending champs weren’t quite on their game!
In any case, the gameplan for the Nuggets again tonight calls for the pick-and-roll game between Murray and Jokic.
After all, that’s how they won the championship last season, because a big center and such an agile guard make life difficult for pretty much any defense.
But there is another effective way to win. And that’s when Gordon steps in and provides a point of contact in the paint by catching and dunking lobs and backdoor passes from Murray and Jokic.
He put that into action on Thursday, completely confusing the Lakers – who inexplicably didn’t really cover him either. Gordon has totaled career playoff highs of 29 points and 15 rebounds so far.
In addition, with such short intervals between games and LeBron James’ energy-sapping performances, you have to expect him to break down sooner or later.
The 39-year-old is unfortunately not getting any younger and if he doesn’t pull the chestnuts out of the fire again, it will be almost hopeless for LAL. Los Angeles also lacks penetration beyond the arc.
It was clear from the outset that threes would not necessarily be one of the strengths of either team, but as solid as Denver’s defense is, a deep shot from downtown simply has to work.
However, since that is not to be expected, the danger remains high that if the Lakers get stuck in the Nuggets’ half-court again, they will not find a way to put points on the board.
But the oddsmakers aren’t fooled by the Lakers’ latest win either. Their Nuggets Lakers odds impressively underline what also seems inevitable to me: an elimination of the purple and gold!
Because the respective win odds of 1.27 to 3.65 have clearly been chosen so that Denver should have the upper hand by a comfortable margin.
Since that seems to be the case, I’m using a user-friendly sports betting app to back the Nuggets to win by at least eight points.
This is not only very likely, but has also been given great odds of around 1.87 by the providers.
Conclusion: After three wins in a row, it was to be expected that the Nuggets would lack some intensity.
And so the Lakers managed to pull out a win, but I don’t want to diminish it. Because they managed to be more present in the paint and more decisive in the battle for the free ball.
Nevertheless, I don’t believe for a second that the Lakers will pull off the greatest comeback in play-off history against this team and at this venue. The defending champions are simply too ripped off for that.
My Nuggets Lakers tip: The home side win with a handicap of -7.5
