NBA Regular Season 2023/24, Friday, 22.03.2024
In my Nuggets Knicks tip, however, I point out why a Jokic points bet only enjoys the odds of a classic coin toss, while a Knickerboxers win, on the other hand, has a lot of “value” in terms of the odds.
Placing a Jokic bet on the NBA’s perhaps best center to crack the 30-point mark is always a popular offer among sports betting fans on the part of German bookmakers, and one that many are also focusing on tonight.
Watch out: Since March 1, the Serbian has played a total of 10 games for the Nuggets and an appearance with a personal points return below that mark has always and without exception been followed by one with a higher return.
Following this logic, the 35 points he scored yesterday in the 115-112 win over the Timberwolves should strictly speaking be followed by another game in which the focus should be a little more on providing assists.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets’ win over the playmaking Timberwolves deserves plenty of praise, but it was somewhere to be expected that the Serbian would score plenty of points on this occasion.
Minnesota already knew before the tip-off that strong defensive players such as Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and even Naz Reid would be missing, so that the All-Star center could not be countered too much as a result.
The Knicks, on the other hand, are another strong team that has now moved up to fourth place in their conference and could well be capable of repeating their success over Denver from January, even if OG Anunoby won’t help them
OG Anunoby made a brief return to the Knicks in early February after sitting out, but the injury flared up again and he’s out indefinitely.
Nevertheless, I reiterate at this point that the “Knickerboxers” are capable of taking down the defending NBA champions once again, even without the Brit.
Meanwhile, the NYK are applying for the role of stumbling block with four consecutive victories, including two impressive ones over the 76ers (106:79) and before that over the Golden State Warriors (119:112).
What I really like about the New Yorkers is that, although they don’t employ any absolute superstars, they can systematically play even the best teams in the NBA to the wall with a cohesive team performance when things are going well.
However, you should bear in mind that statistically speaking, the visitors outside of Colorado are much easier to beat for the rest of the league than in the Ball Arena, where most visiting teams usually fight a losing battle.
The Nuggets have won 27 of 33 home games in Denver, but have performed much less well away from home, winning just 21 of 36 away games.
That makes an impression, even with the bookmakers! Consequently, you shouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets Knicks odds for tonight have been set at an average of 1.20 to 4.50 so that the clear favorite role belongs to the home side
A good example of how dominant the Knicks can be when they want to is January 26, when they pulverized the Nuggets 122-84.
Nikola Jokic was not absent on this occasion, in fact he was by far the most productive force in his hopelessly overstretched team with 31 points.
However, six Knicks players were more productive at the board in this monumental triumph than even the Nuggets’ second-best player, meaning that the Serbian was still far from a winner despite cracking the 30-point mark.
The center could face a similar fate tonight, meaning that a player bet on his offensive output remains a 50:50 statistical proposition with the bookmakers – as it has been since the beginning of the month.
What has much better odds than a simple coin toss, however, is the possibility of the Knickerboxers repeating their success of two months ago.
Perhaps they can once again overwhelm the Nuggets with a strong performance from beyond the arc and, as in the January duel, achieve a three-point success rate of 39.5 %.
Conclusion: Jokic can break through the 30-point barrier again, but the Knicks’ defense is much better equipped than the Timberwolves’ recently weakened one.
But regardless of that, the Knickerboxers, who are underestimated by the bookmakers, already proved impressively in January that they can beat Denver even with the Serb on the board.
Of course, a win in the Ball Arena is much harder to come by than elsewhere in the USA, but at these odds I would hope that the success in January was not a flash in the pan.
My Nuggets Knicks tip: Victory for the NYK with HC +9.5.
