Australian Open in Melbourne, quarter-finals, Tuesday, 23.01.2024
The world number one really gets going at the Australian Open. Novak Djokovic maneuvered Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Adrian Mannarino out of the tournament at lightning speed in the final rounds and is ready for the quarter-finals.
There he will face the world’s twelfth player, Taylor Fritz, who defeated last year’s finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas and has had a very strong tournament on his favorite surface so far.
Does he now also have a chance against the Djoker? I reckon the Californian will make it to the tiebreak at least once. Fritz has won that more often than the set, having lost all eight matches against the high-flyer. You can find out more about my Bet365 odds in my Djokovic Fritz tip
Djokovic gets better and better over the course of the Australian Open. The most successful tennis player of all time had his back to the wall several times against Dino Prizmic and Alexei Popyrin. A virus slowed him down in the first week.
He successfully overcame it and, fitter than ever, played his rivals to the wall. Etcheverry and Mannarino found no way to pose a threat to the Serb. Djokovic stepped up his game in almost every area.
He played at a faster pace in the rallies, moved around the court better, returned more aggressively and increased his first serve percentage considerably. He is almost impossible to beat in this form
Fritz will definitely have to play his A-game to be competitive. The bookmakers don’t give him much of a chance. At 9.00 he is the clear outsider in the quarter-finals. Djokovic stands at 1.07.
With this massive difference, only the outright 3:0 at 1.72 is worth betting on the Djoker to win, in my opinion the bet is too risky, even though the Serb has dominated his opponents recently.
Fritz is stronger than Etcheverry and Mannarino, who previously had to play out five exhausting sets against Ben Shelton and doesn’t cope with the long games as well as Fritz, who is around ten years younger. That’s why I definitely have my eye on a set win at 2.00 odds
The Californian’s tournament record makes you want more. In the last three rounds, he left almost nothing to be desired in his service games. Hugo Gaston, Fabian Marozsan and Stefanos Tsitsipas combined for just eight break opportunities
In contrast to Djokovic, he played one set more on court in each of the last two rounds, but didn’t have to play out any marathon sets with his flat forehand shots.
Fritz still has a big score to settle with Djokovic, as the direct duel so far speaks for itself. Djokovic is 8:0 ahead, having failed to win outright in just one match against the American.
Fritz was at his most dangerous in the third round of their first meeting in Melbourne in 2021. But he had to admit defeat after five sets. The stars only played their second match at major level in September.
They also recently played a quarter-final match at the US Open. In New York, the final score was 6-1, 6-4, 6-4, and I think Fritz can do better this time. After all, he is currently playing better tennis than in the last major.
He won two sets in the first duel in Melbourne. A tiebreak was also played, and the corresponding odds for this market are 1.63 this time, a top bet for two players who are sure of their serve.
My Djokovic Fritz tip
Djokovic has been a size too big for Fritz, who has lost all eight matches against the Serb and only won a set once. He experienced that feeling twice in the first Melbourne duel of 2021.
With this clear record, the betting providers such as Oddset are once again expecting a clear victory for the record Grand Slam winner and yes, the Djoker is showing incredible tennis again after his infection, literally dismantling Etcheverry and Mannarino, but now has a much tougher opponent on the court.
Fritz has hardly let anything slip in his service games in the last three matches. I think a set win is very realistic this time. At the very least, the clash between two confident servers is likely to come down to a tie-break like in 2021.
My Djokovic Fritz tip: There will be at least 1 tiebreak in the match
