ATP tournament in Sofia, semi-finals, Friday, 10.11.2023
A conciliatory end to an overall strong tennis season for Jan-Lennard Struff. The man from Warstein is through to the semi-finals of the 250 tournament in Sofia, where he will face Jack Draper.
The young Brit, who had to miss the summer due to injury, turned up the heat once again at the end of the year. He didn’t drop a set in the first three rounds in Sofia. In my Draper Struff tip, I recommend a bet from Bet365:
Will Struff win his first ATP title this year after all? In his last attempt at the 250 in Sofia, he could still achieve the feat. He is still two victories away from triumph, but will face a strong opponent in the semi-finals.
Draper is one of the newcomers on the tennis scene. One thing he has in common with Struff this season is a bitter injury in the summer. Neither star was able to serve at the most prestigious tournament of the year, Wimbledon.
One of them now has the chance to reach the final and win his first title. It would be the first title beyond Challenger level for both players. The Warstein native has reached two of his three career finals this year.
He even managed to equalize the set against Alcaraz in Madrid: 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Just one month later, he made the next attempt, but failed in the tie-break after leading the set in the two subsequent rounds: 4-6, 7-6, 7-6.
After his hip problems, which slowed him down for three months, he has not yet returned to his original form. Before the tournament in Sofia, he had a record of two wins from eight matches.
Only Cristian Garin and Christopher Eubanks failed in their duel against “Struffi”. In Sofia, he managed two consecutive victories for the first time again, starting with a 7-6, 6-4 win against Billy Harris.
The quarter-final against the up-and-coming Fabian Marozsan, the Hungarian who defeated Alcaraz on his showpiece surface at the Masters in Rome this year, was more complicated. He prevailed against Marozsan 7-6, 4-6, 6-4
It was his second match against Marozsan, against whom he lost in three sets at the Bratislava Challenger almost exactly one year earlier. With Draper, the next rising tennis star now awaits in the semi-finals.
Struff will play his first match against the Brit. He goes into the match against the twelve years younger pro as a slight underdog. Bet365 assigns the Warsteiner odds of 3.00, Draper stands at 1.40.
The 82nd player in the world already impressed last week at the Challenger in Bergamo, where he won his fifth Challenger career title, beating Brandon Nakashima (6-1, 3-6, 7-5) and David Goffin (1-6, 7-6, 6-3) in the final.
In contrast to the third seed Struff, Draper already had to play the first round in Sofia, easily holding his own against Maximilian Marterer from Nuremberg, and he also made an impression against the top seeds Lorenzo Musetti and Cem Ilkel without losing a set.
In the three matches, he only lost one service game against Musetti. Marterer and Ilkel were unable to create a single break chance. He hardly let anything go wrong on his first serve, winning at least 85 percent of the points.
And he reliably got his first serve over the net, never dropping below 65 percent in a match. Struff was able to put similarly strong figures on the stat sheets these days.
Tennis fans can expect long sets due to his strong service percentages. Betano serves at 1.88 odds for over 0.5 tiebreaks. Struff has played six tiebreaks in his last six matches
My Draper Struff tip
Draper vs Struff, tennis fans can look forward to a thrilling powerplay tennis match. In the current phase, however, the Brit is somewhat more stable and is rightly the favorite with the betting providers. However, I am surprised by the clarity of the odds.
Yes, Draper won in Bergamo and has recently beaten names like Goffin and Musetti, but those tennis greats are currently in low form. What’s more, the Brit will be playing his eighth match in nine days on Friday.
There is unlikely to be an easy walkover on Friday against the fully motivated Struff, who finally wants to bag his first ATP title. I am convinced that the Warstein native, who is getting back into his stride, will win at least one set.
My Draper Struff tip: Set win Struff!
