ATP Tournament in Vienna, Quarterfinals, Friday, 10/27/2023
The champion of the year 2021 meets the winner of the year 2020! The very strong Erste Bank Open in Vienna is already waiting in the quarterfinals with the absolute firecrackers, and the match between Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev is no exception.
Both have been convincing all along the line so far, but now, as is well known, there can only be one winner. This is the eighth direct duel and I can say that much in advance: The German leads surprisingly clearly in the comparison!
At Bet-at-Home, however, the odds are almost identical and we expect the match to be on an equal footing. Therefore, I will now reveal in my Zverev Rublev tip why I see good chances for a tiebreak.
October is coming to an end, and so is this high-class tennis season 2023. Only a few weeks are left on the tour, so there is not much time left for a conciliatory conclusion.
A number of world stars have gathered in the Austrian capital, including Alexander Zverev. With the best memories, because the last time he was a guest in Vienna two years ago, he even won the tournament.
The best German tennis player has had a damn tough year, after a long injury break it took a long time before he could present his usual strokes again. The big problem: the famous consistency.
Before he made the trip to Vienna, he disappointed in Shanghai and Japan, again had also won a tournament before these two competitions. The task now is to show the strong side again.
Apparently he has already recovered well from the Asian Tour, because his two previous appearances at the Erste Bank Open could not have gone better. Right from the start, he put Sebastian Ofner in his place with a 6-4, 6-1 win.
88% of points won on the first serve, no break chance for the opponent, that was something to be proud of. But it was all the more pleasing that he showed exactly the same strengths against Cameron Norrie a little later on.
6-2, 6-4, all break opportunities of the rival fended off, 82% successful first serves and 80% won points on the first service, that was good! The only criticism was that only 30% of the second serve went over the net.
After these two impressive performances, he will face his toughest opponent so far in the quarterfinals: Andrey Rublev. He has already played the Russian seven times, winning five of them.
Unfortunately, from a German point of view, I also see a shortcoming. Zverev was leading 5:0 in the direct comparison before the two met twice in 2023. Rublev won both in Dubai and in Bastad, so the momentum should be more on his side.
He also collected both wins outright, so the world No. 5 now knows exactly how to play against Alexander Zverev. Our bookmakers, however, are unanimous: No one is ahead here!
Both are averaging 1.90, so it’s probably the famous little things that will decide who wins in the end. Rublev, the Shanghai finalist (defeat to Hubert Hurkacz), knows Vienna quite well, after all.
At the start of the current tournament, he won 7-6, 6-4 against Alexei Popyrin, but had to play at his limit. A little later, he didn’t have the toughest opponent either, Matteo Arnaldi, and consequently won 7-5, 6-3.
The 26-year-old allowed a total of three breaks, so he is clearly behind Zverev here. In terms of the year as a whole, however, Rublev is of course the player who has the better results to show.
My Zverev Rublev Tip
Alexander Zverev or Andrey Rublev, who will move on to the semifinals in Vienna? Both put up two convincing performances, but the German had the slightly tougher opponents in my eyes.
I have already discussed the direct comparison, Rublev has caught up this year and made the most of his opponent’s weak phases. But Zverev showed in Austria’s capital how strong he can serve.
All in all, I expect a very close affair, in which a bit of luck can be decisive. Since the service qualities on both sides convince me, my tip is:
We’ll see at least one tiebreak!
