ATP Tokyo Tournament, Round of 16, Thursday, 10/19/2023
Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz? The names of the last three champions at the ATP tournament in Tokyo are more than sonorous! Another one will join the ranks in a few days, meanwhile we have reached the round of 16.
In this round, I will now deal with two players who do not belong to the absolute top favorites. An Australian seeded at position 4 is clearly ahead before his match on DAZN Bet and consorts, but in my de Minaur Schwartzmann tip I now reveal why I also believe the outsider will win at least one set!
Do you automatically belong to the tournament favorites if you are seeded fourth? Alex de Minaur wants to go far in Tokyo, the round of 16 from 2018 represents his best result here so far.
He has now reached this very round after all, but had to go more than just to his limit at the start. Against Jack Draper he won 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, he was not the compellingly better player here.
His entire Asian tour, which began in Beijing, was crowned with far less success. While he was eliminated in the round of 16 in Beijing, he was eliminated even earlier in Shanghai.
He lost to Fabian Marozsan in two sets in round 1, so he doesn’t bring the absolute top form on the court towards the end of the season. The last time he survived a round of 16 was in Canada at the beginning/middle of August, so he should have a lot to do on Thursday.
What about direct duels against Diego Schwartzman? In fact, the two players met for the first time ever in the spring of this year, the premiere duel rose on the fast grass.
De Minaur celebrated an unchallenged 6-2, 6-2, and had no problems at all against the Argentine. By the way, neither of them is particularly tall. While Schwartzman, at 1.70 meters, is one of the shortest on the tour, his opponent is 13 centimeters taller.
What about the odds? In our bettor ranking, de Minaur is a good bit in front, averaging a 1.35 to 3.20.
The now 31-year-old was once one of the best players in the world before injuries put him out of action for months on end and he lost place after place in the rankings.
Six years ago, he made it to the semifinals in Tokyo, but this time the experts don’t have him on their radar for such a strong finish. Tokyo is already his fourth stadium in Asia, everything here truly did not go according to plan.
In Zhuhai as well as in Beijing he lost in the first round, so it was even better in Shanghai. The Argentine not only reached the round of 16, but also beat supposedly better players.
Jiri Lehecka and above all Taylor Fritz failed to beat him, so Schwartzman definitely gained in confidence. In Tokyo, he started with a very confident success, his opponent was Francisco Cerundolo.
6-4, 6-1, 87% successful first serves, although he is one of the smallest professionals, he showed himself very confident on service. Will he now be able to put a player like Alex de Minaur in his place?
My De Minaur Schwartzman Tip
Diego Schwartzman dreams of a return to the top of the world, but how realistic might that be? The small Argentine has already convinced in Shanghai, his first appearance in Tokyo was also really strong.
On the other hand, Alex de Minaur is an opponent who should be much better in terms of ranking. During the last tournaments his performances were less positive, so I can’t imagine that he will win easily on Thursday.
This means that I trust the underdog Schwartzman to keep the match open for a long time and not to lose outright. My tip is consequently:
Schwartzman grabs at least one set!
