ATP Tokyo Tournament, 1st Round, Tuesday, 10/17/2023
Casper Ruud is fighting for the participation at the ATP Finals in Torino. Currently, the Norwegian is ranked eighth in the world. In Tokyo, he now wants to collect the next points and can, among other things, distance himself from Alexander Zverev, who failed in the opener.
But to do that, he first has to win his own first-round match, which is against Yosuke Watanuki on Tuesday. For the match I recommend a Bet365 betting configurator combo bet, read more in my Watanuki Ruud tip.
It should have gone further, Ruud must have thought after the last tournaments on hard court. The former world number two failed to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals in Beijing and Fabian Marozsan at the Shanghai Masters.
Two matches that a top player is allowed to lose. Especially against Alcaraz, there is no match for the young Spaniard when he turns up the heat. And Marozsan also managed to take a set from the eventual Shanghai tournament winner Hubert Hurkacz.
For the 2022 US Open finalist, it’s a case of wiping his mouth and attacking again in Tokyo. There, Ruud (1.44 odds) will face the up-and-coming Watanuki (2.77) for the first time.
A clear home match for the 25-year-old, who was born around 30 minutes away from the tennis facility. Siblings and parents are all infected by the tennis virus and support each other.
Currently, he is the Watanuki clan’s greatest hope, ranked 73rd in the world after his strongest year to date, regularly winning his opening matches in major tournaments and scoring diligently in Challenger tournaments as well.
Most recently, he reached the final of the Shanghai Challenger, but was beaten by Christopher O’Connell. The Japanese didn’t drop a set until the final and was also convincing in the subsequent Masters.
He had Taylor Fritz on the brink of defeat, was ahead in the first sets with breaks, but then had to admit defeat in the end: 6-7, 7-6, 4:6.
Two tiebreaks are more the exception than the rule for both players in a two-set win match, though. For Watanuki, it was the only one of the last ten matches in which he had to play out the set decider twice.
And Ruud had to play more than one tiebreaker only once in 42 matches in 2023 with two winning sets. Those who want to pounce on the Norwegian’s win rate can therefore add the “Under 1.5 tiebreak” odds right on top.
The Bet365 tennis betting configurator makes it possible. Who speculates on no tiebreak at all, gets a strong single odds of 1.53 at Bet365 by the way. Since I assume some breaks, I can warmly recommend the odds.
The players have not met on the tour yet. Also, given the massive difference in world ranking position, Ruud winning odds is a hot bet.
Overall, he brings much more potential with him, has already been in a Grand Slam final three times and bankruptcies against players beyond the top 50 rarely happen to him.
If you want to bet on a win without losing a set for the Norwegian, Betano offers 2.20 odds. A good middle ground would be a bet on “Ruud wins the first set and the match”.
In matches of Ruud you can also always expect a long first set. Eleven of his last twelve first sets went over at least ten games. An overplay bet in set 1 would therefore also be a good option.
My Watanuki Ruud Tip
Ruud gets into trouble with players who serve very strongly, follow up aggressively and win points mostly via two-stroke combinations. That doesn’t include Watanuki, who nevertheless presents strong serve rates at 6-foot-6.
However, I expect Ruud to get into the service games of the Japanese player well and to be dangerous for him again and again. I expect an undisputed Ruud victory.
My Watanuki Ruud tip: Win Ruud & Under 1,5 tiebreaks.
