Wimbledon, semi-final, Friday, 14/07/2023
It could come to the big duel between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic in the final of Wimbledon. For that to happen, however, the Spaniard must first win his semi-final against Daniil Medvedev.
After two mixed grass tournaments, Medvedev has improved at Wimbledon. Until the semi-finals, however, the really big opponent was still missing. Will the Spaniard be his final stop? I’ll go into that in my Alcaraz Medvedev tip.
“A player like created by an AI”, that’s how Der Spiegel described high-flyer Alcaraz after his quarter-final win against Holger Rune, whom he gave no chance in a smooth 3:0 victory.
Rune only had one break chance. He was unable to take advantage of the opportunity and from the second set onwards he found no method of regularly scoring quick points against Alcaraz.
The world’s number one knows the perfect answer to every shot. For his young age of 20, he already brings enormous maturity and versatility to the court.
The opponent on the other side of the court never knows which of his paradise shots he will play over the net next. Combined with his speed and game intelligence, he will give the tennis world a lot of pleasure in the years to come.
Against Daniil Medvedev (3.20 odds), he will be looking to bag his 46th win of the year in his 50th match and head towards his second Grand Slam title. It is no big surprise that Alcaraz (1.36) is the favourite according to the bookmakers.
He has proved how strong his grass court tennis is this year, especially against grass court specialist Matteo Berrettini and against Rune. Together, the two professionals had only four break chances.
From the second set onwards, they hardly had any easy service games themselves. Alcaraz is also a force on the defensive. Berrettini’s point quota after the first service fell by 19 per cent compared to the match against Alexander Zverev!
Rune also had to give up considerably more points in his own service games compared to his round of 16 match against Grigor Dimitrov. Medvedev should be warned.
He won his first match on grass against Alcaraz in 2021. Back then, the two tennis stars met in the second round of Wimbledon. The final score was 6-4, 6-1, 6-2.
Almost two years later, Medvedev was already facing a much more mature Alcaraz, which he directly felt in the final defeat (6-3, 6-2) in Indian Wells.
In this duel, too, I expect a fairly clear victory for the 20-year-old. Medvedev has yet to face a great opponent in the first rounds.
He met Arthur Fery, Adrian Mannarino, Marton Fucsovics, Christopher Eubanks and Jiri Lehecka in the first matches. The latter had to retire early due to injury.
He was especially vulnerable on second serve in these matches. In the first four rounds, he won less than 50 percent of his points on average and now the most dangerous return player on the tour is waiting for him.
I can imagine that Alcaraz, as he did against Rune, will leave no stone unturned and win the match over three sets. Bet365 is offering 3.25 odds for this match.
My Alcaraz Medvedev tip
Medvedev has had quite an appreciative path to the semi-finals. All his opponents are outside the world’s top 30. Now he has to face the world’s number one for his first Wimbledon final appearance.
Alcaraz was clearly the stronger player in March and in recent months the Russian has generally struggled and not played at the level he offered when he was top of the world rankings.
I expect the current world number one to beat Medvedev and not need five sets to do so. Hence, I come up with the following recommendation.
My Alcaraz Medvedev tip: Alcaraz win with -1.5-set handicap
