Wimbledon, Round of 16, Monday, 10/07/2023
After a complicated start to the grass court season, Daniil Medvedev has stepped it up a notch at Wimbledon. The Russian lost only one set in his first three rounds.
In the round of 16, he will now meet the Czech high-flyer Jiri Lehecka. In my Medvedev Lehecka betting tip, I reveal which bet is the best for this match.
Medvedev has equalled his best-ever result on the hallowed turf by reaching the last 16. In 2021, he was also in the round of the last 16, but failed then as in the 2022 Halle final to Hubert Hurkacz.
In the course of his career, his performance on the fast surface was impressive with a win rate of 68 percent. However, it was only enough for a title in Mallorca 2021.
In 2023, things got off to a bumpy start with a loss to Adrian Mannarino in Hertogenbosch. A week later, he slowly got into his rhythm, beating Marcos Giron and Laslo Djere in Halle before the experienced Roberto Bautista Agut sent him home in the quarter-finals.
Unlike other top-seeded players such as Alcaraz, the big results failed to materialise before Wimbledon, but it hasn’t had an impact at the Major yet.
He solved the first rounds against Arthur Fery (7-5, 6-4, 6-3) and Adrian Mannarino (6-3, 6-3, 7-6) without much trouble. Even losing the first set against Marton Fucsovics (4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4) did not upset the world number three.
So far, Medvedev has had 31 break chances and has surrendered a total of five service games in three matches. A stable quota, but the 27-year-old is always good for a quickly lost service game.
He now meets Lehecka for the first time. At 1.25 odds, he is also the favourite in this match, while the Bet3000 odds on the Czech are around 3.80.
The Czech should definitely not be underestimated despite his limited grass court experience.
In total, he stood twelve times on the surface, won half of his matches. His isolated 2023 record looks much better. Five victories and only two defeats.
In Stuttgart and at the Queens Club, he was eliminated after the second round against Frances Tiafoe and Carlos Alcaraz. Before that, he defeated Giron and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Like Medvedev, Lehecka only came to operating temperature at Wimbledon. He cleared the first two rounds without losing a set and a tiebreak against Sebastian Ofner and Francisco Cerundolo.
In these two matches alone, he created ten break chances per match and only had to fend off two opportunities from his opponent.
He only got a successful break against himself from Tommy Paul, with whom he dueled in a five-set marathon with three tiebreaks in the third round.
Both players served strongly. After almost four hours of play and a clear fifth set, the 21-year-old prevailed in the end.
After these strong results, he can definitely be expected to win the set at 1.56 odds. If both players can serve well on Monday, a tiebreak is only a matter of time.
Bet365 offers 1.61 odds for at least one tiebreak in the match. 12.0 odds are waiting for over 2.5 tiebreaks, as in Lehecka’s last match.
My Medvedev Lehecka tip
Lehecka has made an impression after the first three rounds. He has only had to surrender one service game. Now Medvedev is waiting, who also showed a confident performance, but has already lost a set against Fucsovics.
In addition, Medvedev was vulnerable from time to time in his own service games. With Lehecka’s current level of play, I can even imagine an underdog win.
But to minimise the risk, in my Medvedev Lehecka tip I choose Lehecka to win the set.
