ATP Tournament in Eastbourne, Round of 16, Wednesday, 28.06.2023
Who will convince in Eastbourne? The players who are seeded far ahead – or rather the outsiders? It wouldn’t be unusual if one or the other of the starters already had Wimbledon on their minds!
But the concentration is now once again on another tournament, and that also applies to an American who is one of the top favourites.
In his opening match, he is not only seen in front at Bwin, but also in my Baez Paul tip!
It was a disappointing Grand Slam in Paris that Tommy Paul pulled off in the French capital. He already retired in the 2nd round, so he started his season on grass unusually early.
Maybe that was not such a bad thing, because it gave him a chance to prepare thoroughly for Wimbledon. In Stuttgart, he was unlucky to lose to Jan-Lennard Struff, the eventual finalist, by an incredibly close 6-7, 6-7.
In Queens, where Paul was top seed, he advanced one round. He defeated Taro Daniel and Billy Harris before being eliminated by Francisco Cerundolo. 6-7, 6-4, 4-6, again the defeat was damn close.
When was the last time the US American lost without a tiebreak? Three months ago in Miami, in fact, when he lost 4-6, 4-6 to Carlos Alcaraz. At this point, I’ll take a quick look at the possible tiebreak bet.
At Bet365, a 6-7 or 7-6 brings odds of 2.50, so this bet would not be bad at all in my eyes. Last year, Paul also took part in Eastbourne and his result was quite respectable.
Francisco Cerundolo and Jannik Sinner failed to beat him, in the quarter-finals he lost to Alex de Minaur in three sets. Interesting: All three matches went the full distance of three sets.
Paul has not yet had to deal with Sebastian Baez, but he is definitely ahead in terms of height. The Argentine is only 1.70 metres tall and has to make up for this deficit with a lot of fight.
The 22-year-old is now one of the best 40 players in the world, and of course this is not the end of the story. At his premiere in Eastbourne, Baez had to start one round earlier.
He did that without any difficulties, celebrating a smooth 6-3, 6-4 against Nuno Borges. He didn’t give his opponent a single break chance, which is something to be proud of considering his relatively small size.
Before the French Open, Baez reached at least the quarter-finals twice in a row, so he knows what it feels like in the top rounds. But now he is at home on a different surface, the red clay is actually his favourite.
The Argentinean can now hurt any player in the world if he has a good day. Tommy Paul is not that far ahead of him in the world rankings, so some may be surprised by the odds.
In our betting provider ranking 2023, there is an average of 1.20 to 4.50 to be seen, so Baez is labelled as a clear underdog. There has not yet been a direct duel, so we will be experiencing a real premiere on Wednesday.
My Baez Paul Tip
For Tommy Paul, the tournament in Eastbourne is already the third on grass, so he should slowly get used to the new surface. The runaway results upwards have been somewhat lacking lately.
His opponent, Sebastian Baez, actually prefers clay, but got going well in Eastbourne. For me personally, however, the US American is the much bigger act, which is why I would risk the following tip:
Paul wins 2:0 against Baez!
