ATP Tournament in Halle, semi-finals, Saturday, 24.06.2023
Alexander Zverev is showing strong form at the Halle 500 tournament. The German did not drop a set in his first three matches. Will the success story continue?
Alexander Bublik, who has already eliminated a German, Jan-Lennard Struff, from the tournament, is waiting in the semi-finals. Will he reach his first ATP 500 final? I’ll write about the chances in the next lines of my Bublik Zverev tip.
He makes an impressive comeback after his bitter exit at the French Open. Alexander Zverev went down in three sets to Casper Ruud in the semi-finals at Roland Garros.
A thigh strain had slowed him down. But the injury has been cured and the German is back on the gas. In Halle, Zverev marched into the semi-finals without losing a set
Alexander Bublik (3.20) is waiting there. As in the rounds before, bettors are giving Zverev (1.36) the favourite odds. In fact, the odds are identical to the matches against Shapovalov and Jarry.
In the course of the tournament, the Hamburg native, who will also serve in his hometown after Wimbledon, did easily. He prevailed against Dominic Thiem in round one 6-3, 6-4.
His mate managed to create just one break chance but failed to take it. He was even more dominant against Shapovalov (6-2, 6-4), who even remained without a break chance.
Zverev, on the other hand, had 13 chances from these two matches alone to take the service game from his opponents. He added six against Nicolas Jarry (7-5, 6-3), of which he made use of two.
The reigning Olympic champion was thus the first player in the tournament to successfully convert his break chances against the current 28th ranked player in the world.
He was also strong on his own service in this match, only weakening in the final phase of the match when Jarry increased the pressure in the return game when he was down by a break again.
But Zverev remained mentally strong, fending off all opportunities to remain unbeaten in his service games ahead of the semi-finals. Even if his rate of only 54 percent of points won on the second serve could be improved.
His opponent in the last four also knows how to play strong serves. Bublik started with an easy two-set win against Borna Coric (6-3, 6-1).
Struff (6-3, 6-7, 6-3) was able to fight back after losing the first set, but was unable to hold on against the Kazakh in the third set. The player from Warstein, however, can console himself with a semi-final spot in the doubles, which he will play with Oscar Otte.
Bublik also used his aggressive winner strokes against Jannik Sinner (7-5, 2:0), who had to retire after losing the first set with thigh problems.
The 26-year-old from Gattschina is doing very well in Halle. Against Sinner he used all three break chances, against Struff he even had 14 opportunities, in round one it was ten.
His powerful strokes win him points quickly, especially on grass. However, he also makes mistakes quickly. Especially in phases when he lacks touch, his opponents can score points in a row.
The world number 48 doesn’t know how to slow down. He already felt comfortable on grass in recent years. He reached the final twice in Newport.
A tiebreak is conceivable in the match between the two strong-serving professionals. Betano offers odds of 1.62 for this market.
The bet for exactly two sets in the match is also in a lucrative range: 1.62. The oddsmakers are therefore not sure whether one of the players will come through smoothly.
Bublik, who can enter a 500 tournament final for the first time, will meet the man who has already made two finals appearances in Halle. But Zverev lost his matches against Florian Mayer in 2016 and Roger Federer a year later.
Zverev and Bublik have already met three times. The Kazakh won the first two matches on hard court in 2021 and 2022 in two sets.
In Monaco this year, things again did not look good for Zverev after trailing in the first set. But the German turned the match around and got his first win against Bublik.
Total: Both players put in strong performances in Halle and Bublik is particularly dangerous on fast surfaces when he has the momentum on his side.
However, he has a very defensively strong opponent in Zverev, who has also reached the final twice in this tournament, while Bublik has never reached the 500 final.
I expect the Kazakh to drop too many points due to his error rate and Zverev will be able to capitalise on that and win again in two sets.
