ATP Tournament in Halle, Quarter Finals, Friday, 23.06.2023
The first two grass court matches of Alexander Zverev make you want more. He is now in the quarter-finals in Halle. Set loss and tiebreak? Not a chance!
Nicolas Jarry is waiting in the round of the last eight. He lost to the Chilean in Geneva. Can he now take revenge?
In my Zverev Jarry tip, I offer a prediction and betting recommendation
Turf is not the favourite surface of Alexander Zverev, who told “SportBild” only last week that he was too tall for the fastest surface.
The low bouncing balls are not comfortable for Germany’s number two as a tall 1.98-metre man, as they are not in his swing zone.
However, he had little trouble with it against problem child Dominic Thiem (6-3, 6-4) and Denis Shapovalov (6-2, 6-4) in the first rounds of the much-loved 500 tournament in Halle.
Especially the round of 16 went impressively. He played ideal angles with his shots in rows and his paradise stroke, the backhand longline taught by mother Irina, also enabled him to win some points.
Shapovalov was unable to win a single break point. In the past, he was often able to keep up well against the German with a record of 3:4.
Zverev secured 81 percent of the points after the first serve. When the Hamburg native serves confidently, he is almost unstoppable on the tour.
After all, Zverev also has a lot of qualities when it comes to returns. In the last six matches he has had 62 break opportunities.
He now wants to build on this performance to boost his confidence on grass ahead of Wimbledon. Against Jarry (3.10), Zverev (1.35) is again the favourite, as in the rounds before.
However, betting provider Bet3000 can well imagine that the Olympic champion will have to go over three sets this time.
For an even two-set match, quite high odds of 1.55 are offered. The 2.35 for three sets is set low compared to other matches.
Zverev has already met Jarry four times. The first three duels all took place during the 2019 clay court season. Zverev successfully struck back twice in Geneva and Hamburg after losing in Barcelona.
In May this year, Jarry managed to level the direct duel at 2-2. Once again they met in Geneva. Zverev lost in two straight sets (6-7, 3-6).
Three times so far, the two equally tall, strong-serving players, who are only two centimetres short of the two-metre mark, have played out a tiebreak.
Even on fast grass, a 7-6 is not unlikely. Betano provides 1.57 odds for “over 0.5 tiebreaks”. Over 1.5 tiebreaks are already in the 4.35 range.
The German, who is six places ahead of Jarry in the world rankings, has more experience on grass. Zverev has won 32 of his 49 matches on this surface, a solid rate of 65 percent.
Statistically, he is just as strong on this surface as on hard courts. Jarry, on the other hand, has only won nine of his 21 matches on grass. But this year he is playing at a higher level overall, winning almost 75 per cent of his matches.
The current 28th place in the world rankings is his highest ranking to date. Zverev will be warned at the latest when recalling the memory of the last duel.
The Chilean also did not drop a set in Halle, winning against Corentin Moutet (6-3, 7-5) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (7-6, 7-5).
He has won ten of his last eleven matches. Only French Open finalist Casper Ruud was able to defeat him in Paris.
Total: Zverev has had no problems in his first two matches and should have no trouble against Jarry with the level he was able to produce against Shapovalov.
The Chilean was still able to defeat Zverev in Geneva, but he also benefited from a weak performance by the German, of which nothing has been seen in Halle so far.
He fended off the eleven break chances of Tsitsipas and Moutet. However, these show that he was serving quite fragilely in various phases. Such opportunities will not be missed by a defensively stronger Zverev.
That’s why I’m going to bet that Zverev will win the first set and the match
