ATP Halle Tournament, 2nd Round, Wednesday, 21.06.2023
Stefanos Tsitsipas got his act together after losing the opening set against Gregoire Barrere in Halle and will now face Nicolas Jarry.
The Chilean had little trouble against Corentin Moutet in the first round, but can he be a threat to Tsitsipas? I will go into this in my Jarry Tsitsipas tip. One thing in advance: Set number one and the match will go to the favourite, in my opinion.
Jarry is anything but a grass court specialist on the ATP Tour. For the last three years, the 27-year-old gave the grass season a wide berth. It was not until Halle that he served again.
And very successfully, too. Corentin Moutet defeated him in two sets (6-3, 7-5). All in all, Jarry served quite well, with around 70 per cent after the first and second service.
Two breaks were enough to move into round two. The Chilean also benefited from his nerves in the match. Moutet even had one more break chance, but missed all six.
Thus, the result was clearer than the actual course of the match. In the match, Jarry also scored just ten points more than the Frenchman.
Another big name now awaits in the form of Stefanos Tsitsipas, who, like Jarry, prefers to play on clay and also presents the best odds of victory there.
The Greek is the favourite according to the betting providers, at Bet-at-home at still quite acceptable odds of 1.33. For Jarry, a 3.25 is offered.
However, the bookmakers are not fully convinced of a quick victory for this year’s Australian Open finalist. For two sets, there are quite high odds of 1.61.
Tsitsipas already had a close encounter with the green grass in Stuttgart, but lost to Richard Gasquet at the start. At one point it looked as if the world number five might be able to turn the match around.
But in the third set, Gasquet, who is three times more experienced on grass (7-6, 2-6, 7-5), came back. Against Jarry, however, Tsitsipas is the more experienced player.
Jarry has played 42 matches on the fastest tennis surface compared to 20. In 2018, the Greek even reached round four of Wimbledon, losing to John Isner then.
Last year, Tsitsipas won the grass court tournament in Mallorca and then reached round three of Wimbledon, the final stop was Nick Kyrgios.
In Halle, the Greek is now on court for the third time. In 2018 and 2022, he reached the second round. In 2022, it was once again the polarising Australian who sent him home.
This year, he is expected to go further. He can build on a strong record of 33 wins from 43 matches. Tsitsipas met Jarry twice on the tour.
In their first meeting of 2019, the pair played out the second round of Hertogenbosch. Jarry prevailed after three sets. They also met in April. In the Masters in Monte Carlo, Tsitsipas was clearly ahead.
In Halle, I also see Greece’s number one in front, who put in a strong performance in round one despite the close 6-7, 6-4, 7-6.
In total, he had twelve break opportunities, converted 83 per cent of his first serve into points and served 16 aces.
I wouldn’t bet on an even 2:0, which is offered at 2.10 odds. After all, the number 5 in the ATP rankings had already dropped a set in the first two grass court matches of the year.
A more lucrative bet is on Tsitsipas to win set 1 and the match at odds of 1.61 at Bet365. With this bet, he should allow himself a brief period of weakness in the second set.
Conclusion: Tsitsipas failed to beat Gasquet in his first grass-court match this season, but showed a clear improvement in Halle and was clearly in control for many phases of a tight match.
If he makes more efficient use of his opportunities against Jarry, who had fewer break chances than he allowed himself in the first match, Tsitsipas should definitely master the second round.
I expect a strong start from the world number five, who also has twice as much experience on grass despite his younger age.
Also because he won ten of his first eleven sets on grass in 2022, I’m going with the following tip: Tsitsipas wins set one and the match.
