ATP Tournament in Stuttgart, Final, Sunday, 18.06.2023
He actually did it! At first, tennis fans in Stuttgart were still a little sad that Alexander Zverev didn’t want to take part in the Boss Open. The hope for a German finalist was not really high.
Now, however, the (still) second-best German tennis player is looking forward to playing in the final on the Neckar for the first time. Jan-Lennard Struff thrills the spectators and now wants to take the last step towards the title.
2023 is his year, he is playing better than ever before. At Betway, he may be the slight underdog on Sunday, but this role suits him perfectly. In my Struff Tiafoe tip I will now reveal why I expect a very close match!
1991 the last triumph, since 1999 two appearances in the final? Admittedly, tennis lovers in the Swabian capital have been anything but spoilt in the last 30 years or so!
The Boss Open comes to an end on Sunday, and to everyone’s delight, Jan-Lennard Struff has made it to the final. Was that to be expected? I certainly had the Warsteiner on my radar, so this final does not come as such a surprise.
His immensely strong performance, which he crowned with the final of the Madrid Masters, caused a stir in the tennis world, various stars had to admit defeat to Struff, sometimes very clearly.
Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur, one after the other were amazed. Then, at the French Open of all places, the low point: Struff was eliminated directly in the first round in five sets against Jiri Lehecka.
How well he has recovered from this defeat could now be seen by the spectators in Stuttgart in the last few days. The 33-year-old started with a very confident 6-1, 6-4 against Zhizhen Zhang.
After that, the opponents became much more demanding, but Struff had set his sights high and let every other rival feel it. After his hard-fought 7-6 (4), 7-6 (5) against Tommy Paul, Richard Gasquet was waiting.
It was a bit clearer at 6-4, 7-5, but the German could always rely on his strong service. He won more than 90% of his first serve points in the round of 16 and quarter-finals.
He conceded two breaks in his first three matches, so he had a strong tailwind going into the semi-final against Hubert Hurkacz. Against a player who serves just as well, it was a lively back and forth match.
82% won points on the first serve and 78% on the second, one break allowed – in the end the Pole had nothing to gain from the German 3-6, 6-3, 6-3! Even the many aces did not help Hurkacz any more.
Struff knows what awaits him in the final against Tiafoe. “The atmosphere is world class, full house again. I’m really looking forward to tomorrow and will give everything.” It was three years ago when he last played the US American.
3-6, 7-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, in an unbelievable thriller the German prevailed in the first round of the French Open. The direct comparison is 1:1, but since the most recent duel is three years old, the balance is not very meaningful.
With our betting providers, Frances Tiafoe is ahead with an average of 1.80 to 2.00, but the lead is minimal. The slight favourite is seeded at position 3 in Stuttgart, so his entry into the final was definitely expected.
The 25-year-old is now in the final, but his way there was by no means easy. It already became clear when he beat Jiri Lehecka 7-6, 6-4 that the change from clay to grass is not always easy.
By the way: He beat exactly the player Struff had failed against in Paris. Tiafoe continued with a 6-7 (6), 7-6 (4), 6-2 against Lorenzo Musetti, leaving a lot of grain here.
He finally faced Marton Fucsovics in the semi-finals. After a solid 6-3 in the first set, he found himself in a tiebreak. The Hungarian was already leading 4-1 when Tiafoe ignited the turbo and ended up 13-11 ahead.
Four tiebreaks in three matches, the spectators had already seen two in his defeat against Alexander Zverev in the 3rd round of the French Open. Nevertheless, his semi-final in Stuttgart was not built on luck alone.
He had not conceded a single break chance to Fucsovics, landing an average of a good 80% of points won on his first serve. So both he and Struff know exactly how to serve dangerously!
My Struff Tiafoe Tip
It’s no surprise and probably understandable that I’m keeping my German thumbs clear for Jan-Lennard Struff! As strong as he has been on the road for months, with few exceptions, he would absolutely deserve a title at home.
On the Neckar he shows how quickly he has adapted from clay to grass, his service is incredibly strong. Frances Tiafoe is a few places higher in the world rankings, but there is not much between the two professionals.
Both Struff and his American competitor have a weakness for tiebreaks in Swabia. Since the scores regarding the first service on both sides read incredibly positive, I conclude with the following tip:
We will see at least one tiebreak!
