ATP Tournament in Hertogenbosch, 2nd Round, Thursday, 15.06.2023
After Daniil Medvedev’s surprising first round exit at the French Open, it’s now on to grass for the Russian. In the second round at the tournament in Hertogenbosch he will meet Adrian Mannarino.
The Frenchman started the tournament with a win against his compatriot Arthur Fils. What are his chances in round two? I’ll go into that in my Medvedev Mannarino tip.
It was a big surprise when Thiago Seyboth Wild converted his match point against Daniil Medvedev. The Brazilian turned around a 1-2 set deficit against the world number three.
While clay remains Medvedev’s least favourite surface, the Russian was playing a strong season on the red clay until the start of the tournament in Paris.
He won the Masters in Rome. In Monaco, he prevailed against Alexander Zverev, among others, then failed after the marathon night match against the German, overtired, to Holger Rune.
In Italy, he beat the Dane and Stefanos Tsitsipas outright. It was already the fifth tournament success for the former number one.
Medvedev has already won in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and the Masters in Miami in 2023. He also reached the final in Indian Wells, but lost to Carlos Alcaraz.
The fast surfaces suit the 27-year-old. He has won 25 of his 28 matches on hard court this year.
The Russian is also strong on grass. In the last two years, he won 15 of his 20 matches on the green court. In Hertogenbosch and Halle, he reached the final in 2022, losing to Tim van Rijthoven and Hubert Hurkacz.
He also lost to the Pole in five sets in 2021 in his last Wimbledon appearance. Last year, he was still excluded from participation due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In 2023, all players from Russia and Belarus will again be allowed to play in the world’s most prestigious tennis tournament.
In the opener in Hertogenbosch, Medvedev (1.17) goes into the match against Mannarino (5.10) as the clear favourite. Betano is offering 1.55 for a straightforward 2:0 win.
The odds for under 0.5 tiebreaks are also in a playable range. For this, Betano offers a 1.53. In only three of the last ten Medvedev matches was at least one tiebreak played out.
Even rarer in Mannarino’s matches was a 13-game set. Looking at his last ten matches, there was only one tiebreak, at the start in Hertogenbosch.
Against Fils, he won 7-6, 6-4, but only had two break chances during the match, one of which he could use. He stayed safe in four of his opponent’s break chances, fending off all of them.
His service games are by no means as safe as Medvedev’s on grass. On Thursday, it is to be expected that he will definitely have to fend off more break opportunities than he gets himself.
Even in a possible tiebreak I see Russia’s number 1 clearly ahead with his strong service.
If you want to place a bet that Medvedev will win clearly in two sets, you could combine 2:0 and under 0.5 tiebreaks at total odds of 2.00 with the Bet365 betting configurator.
Medvedev and Mannarino have played each other five times. Before Medvedev made the breakthrough, the Frenchman still decided the first three matches in his favour.
They played out their most famous duel in the third round of Wimbledon 2018. Back then, Medvedev almost turned around a 0:2 deficit. In the end, however, Mannarino closed the bag in the fifth set.
In 2019 in Miami and 2022 in Hertogenbosch, Medvedev won in two sets. The Dutch grass-court tournament will be the third time the two professionals have played each other.
They also played their first duel there. In 2016, Medvedev still had no chance and lost 4-6, 2-6.
Summary: Medvedev and Mannarino have already had the pleasure of playing each other three times on grass. Twice Mannarino prevailed, albeit in years when the world No. 3 was not at the level he is today.
In Hertogenbosch, where they played their first duel in 2016, the two players will now meet for the third time. Last year, Medvedev won in two sets in the semi-finals of the tournament.
This time – as in the first encounter – it is now once again the second round of the 250 tournament. On the fast surfaces, Medvedev is one of the best players in the world.
Mannarino has felt that in his last two matches against Medvedev, when he had to retire without winning a set.
I don’t think the Frenchman has much of a chance in this match either and therefore expect a very short match with less than 22.5 games.
