French Open in Paris, 3rd round, Saturday, 03.06.2023
On Saturday, Holger Rune will go into the third round of the French Open. The 20-year-old will meet Genaro Alberto Olivieri. The Argentine goes into the match as the clear underdog.
Can he challenge the top 10 player after two intense matches with a total of nine sets? In my Rune Olivieri tip, I look for the answer and the perfect odds for this match.
Holger Rune was able to relax the last few days in the French capital. The Dane did not have to play in the second round as tennis icon Gael Monfils was unable to compete.
In the second round, Rune met Christopher Eubanks. The strong-serving US American, who served a total of 15 aces, lost out after four sets.
However, it was not the best match for the world number six. In total, he made nine double faults and only two aces.
His point yield after the second set was correspondingly meagre at 44 percent. But 80 per cent of his points were secured after a successful first serve.
The 20-year-old’s return game in particular is on a very high level. Despite the dangerous first serves, he took just under 30 percent of the points from Eubanks after his first service.
62 percent of the points went to Rune’s account when Eubanks had to grab the second ball from his pocket.
With Genaro Alberto Olivieri, a completely different type of player is now waiting in round three. The Argentine is almost 30 centimetres shorter than Eubanks.
In his first two matches he already had to leave a lot of grain. He had to go the full distance in round one against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (7-6, 4-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1).
The second round match against Andrea Vavassori (7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6) was also exhausting. Already in the days before, he had to qualify for the main draw via three matches.
The betting companies do not assume that the tank is full enough. With 13.00 odds, he is a clear underdog against Rune (1.04).
But even making the third round is a big achievement for the 190 of the world. Before the French Open, he last failed in the first round in Tunis.
In Brazil and in the USA, he reached the quarter-finals twice in other Challenger tournaments in April.
The match against the sixth ranked player in the world will be a completely different matter. Besides the fact that Rune is much fresher with only one match to go, he plays the much better tennis in the rallies.
Olivieri would need a lot of fast free points to stand a chance against Rune. However, I expect many breaks for Rune. Already in the first rounds, Olivieri allowed a total of 22 break chances.
A set win would be a big surprise for me. Bet365 still offers 1.53 odds for a straight 3-0 win.
Even though there were three tiebreaks in the Argentine’s first two matches, I don’t expect one in the third round match.
Under 0.5 tiebreaks combined with the 3-0 win for Rune give total odds of 1.83, definitely a bet with value.
Alternatively, a bet on under 28.5 games in the match could also be placed. Bet-at-home even offers 2.05 odds for this market.
Rune has played an outstanding clay court season so far. He reached the finals of the Masters tournaments in Rome and Monte Carlo. In Munich, he even snatched the title.
He has won 14 of 17 clay court matches in 2023. In the Italian capital, he took out Novak Djokovic and last year’s French Open finalist Casper Ruud, among others.
Summary: Olivieri already has five matches under his belt in Paris. In the main draw, he has already had to play nine sets after the first two matches, three of which ended in a tiebreak.
The tank should not be too full now. The Argentine, who is already celebrating a huge success with round three, will not expect much against Rune.
Especially since Rune is fresh with a match-free entry into the third round and, as a return-strong player, will take the service games away from Olivieri, who is only 1.75 metres tall, in rows.
In my Rune Olivieri tip, I recommend a betting configurator bet at Bet365 consisting of: 3:0 for Rune and under 0.5 tiebreaks.
