Rome Masters, Qualifier, Tuesday, 09.05.2023
For Maximilian Marterer it’s about the entry into the main draw of the 1000 tournament in Rome on Tuesday. At the Masters, the player from Nuremberg has to play against local hero Stefano Napolitano.
The day before, Marterer won against Camilo Ugo Carabelli in two sets. Will he now clinch his place in the tournament? In my Napolitano Marterer tip I give a prediction.
The end of a short dry spell: Marterer finally got through the first qualifying round again with his 6-3, 7-6 win over Carabelli.
The last time he managed that was at a Masters in Indian Wells. In California, he beat Christopher Eubanks and Emilio Nava. After round one in the main draw against Alejandro Tabilo it was finally over.
The 27-year-old then failed to qualify in four straight. At the Phoenix Challenger, Aleksandar Vukic held his own.
He also had to pack his tennis bag after the Miami loss to Aleksandar Kovacevic. Marterer’s opponent Napolitano prevailed against the US American in the first Rome qualifying round.
A few weeks after the hard court tournaments, it continued in Spain and it didn’t get any better for Marterer on the red clay.
Marco Trungelliti (6-2, 6-1) and compatriot Yannick Hanfmann (6-2, 6-4) each handed the Nuremberg player a clear defeat.
After the good start against Carabelli, who was ranked in the world’s top 100 last year but is currently ranked 152nd, things should now get better in Rome.
He showed strength of nerve in fending off five of seven break opportunities, himself taking half of his six chances.
Three quarters of all points on first serve went to his account. Of his three clay court matches in 2023, this is the best figure so far.
The betting providers have also noticed the improvement in performance and trust Marterer to make it into the first round of the tournament. Bet365 assigns the German a win rate of 1.40. Napolitano (2.75) remains only the outsider role.
The form curve of the opponent points upwards. He has won six of his last nine matches. However, the 555 of the world moves in weaker tournaments than Marterer.
Therefore, the successes do not have too much significance. Napolitano had his peak with rank 152. But little by little, he went downhill in the standings. For the past year and a half, the 28-year-old has been outside the top 400.
Of course, a look at the direct duels between the two players, who can almost celebrate their 10th anniversary in Rome, is not to be missed. For in July 2013, the players met in the Wimbledon junior tournament.
Marterer narrowly prevailed in three sets. They played each other another time six months later in Italy. Napolitano used the home advantage and prevailed after two tiebreaks.
Since both players were still teenagers at the time, the direct comparison should not be given too much importance in the search for the perfect odds.
What is clear from the statistics, however, is that both are strong on serve. Both players are over 1.90 meters tall.
There have been five tiebreaks in Marterer’s most recent five matches. This fact argues for a bet on many games on Tuesday.
For over 20.5 games, Bet-at-home has a 1.56 on offer. After a tiebreak in the following set a 6-2 would be enough to win the bet.
Summary: Marterer made his best clay court match so far in 2023 against Carabelli in Rome. The success will surely fire him up and he will be highly motivated to make his second Masters qualification of the year after Indian Wells.
The former world number 48 has often not been able to muster enough in recent tournaments to achieve more, but the last match gives courage for another success.
Especially since his opponent is not in the top 500 and has not promoted himself in recent weeks and months for a clearly better world ranking position.
I expect a match with a lot of games, but I see many advantages for the German. Therefore, I opt for the betting configurator bet that Marterer wins the first set and the match.
