ATP Masters in Monte Carlo, quarter-finals, Friday, 14.04.2023
German title hopes at the Masters in Monte Carlo? Moderate, and if so, surely Alexander Zverev is responsible for that! You probably won’t blame anyone who had exactly that in mind for the prestigious Masters.
But in fact: someone sneaked into the quarter-finals whom no one had on their radar! Having already beaten a real top star, he wants to surprise again on Friday.
Admittedly, at Bet-at-Home he is once again listed as an underdog. But since that hasn’t bothered him before, I’ll now reveal in my Rublev Struff tip why I trust the supposed underdog to win at least one set!
Many a fan is rubbing his eyes in surprise: Jan-Lennard Struff in the quarter-finals of a major Masters? How could that happen! The Warsteiner will forgive this expression of astonishment, probably not even he himself knew how strong he would be in Monte Carlo.
The last few tournaments have already shown that he is getting better and better. After a year in 2022 that was riddled with injuries, he has big goals for 2023. The first is to crack the top 100.
The new world ranking will only be updated after the Masters, but it is already clear that he has already achieved this goal! In the qualifiers, Struff eliminated Juan Pablo Varillas and Emil Ruusuvuori before facing the main event.
His 6-4, 6-3 win over Albert Ramos-Vinolas was really strong and commanding, but he really got going after that. Alex de Minaur was considered much better, also by me.
Struff, however, was wide awake from the start and produced an outstanding 6-3, 6-2. He allowed his opponent to break once, made use of five of his six opportunities himself and, on top of that, collected 86% of the points won on the first serve.
Finally, Casper Ruud, one of the best players in the world and a real specialist on clay, was waiting in the last 16. The German caught his opponent ice-cold, snatching the first set with a fantastic 6-1.
Ruud got the better of him in set number two, but Struff kept his nerve and won 6-1, 7-6 in the end. An incredible performance that cannot be rated highly enough at this point.
Struff could have finished even faster, because he only used four of his 14 break chances this time. 90% of his first serves were successful over the net, so Rudd had no chance from the beginning.
It was already 5-2 in the second set before the German’s nerves fluttered. “It was brutal. I played incredible tennis until 6-1, 5-2. And then, unfortunately, I got a bit nervous. I was thinking about finishing and winning. That triggered something in me,” said the happy winner.
He himself knows: Against Andrey Rublev he has to react cooler in this situation. Between 2018 and 2021, the two have met four times, the score in the direct duel is just 2:2.
The most recent duel took place at the French Open 2021, fittingly also on clay. 6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, it was Struff who was allowed to cheer at the end. Despite this victory and his tournament record, our betting providers are once again quite sceptical.
They call average odds of 3.00 to 1.35, so they see the Russian clearly ahead. Unlike Struff, Rublev has only had to play twice and has had one or two problems.
He first won 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 against Jaume Munar before facing Karen Khachanov. 7-6, 6-2, again Rublev only became stronger after a few rallies and thus made it to the quarter-finals.
The Russian knows how to play big here in Monte Carlo, because two years ago he reached the final here! He sensationally beat Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud, but was beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.
Jannik Sinner, Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev? The last three opponents Rublev lost to in the past tournaments were undoubtedly bigger by name than a Jan-Lennard Struff!
My Rublev Struff tip
From a German point of view, it is of course clear who we are rooting for! But the neutral fan should also be thrilled by the performances Jan-Lennard Struff delivers in Monte Carlo.
As if the difficult year of 2022 hadn’t existed, he smoothly cleared Casper Ruud and Alex de Minaur out of the way. And let’s be honest: If you can dismantle clay specialist Ruud like that, you can probably also do something against Andrey Rublev!
Although the Russian is favoured, I am showing my optimistic side and trust the world number six to have problems. My betting recommendation is therefore:
Struff wins at least one set against Rublev!
