ATP Masters in Miami, Final, Sunday, 02.04.2023
It’s the kind of final you’d wish for in Miami: two absolute superstars going head-to-head! One finally has his nerves under control, the other sees himself in his fifth final in a row.
It is a big trophy that will be awarded here on Sunday evening and lo and behold: at Bet365, with quite similar odds, they are apparently expecting a very close affair! So in my Sinner Medvedev tip, I’ll now reveal why I’m going for three sets here!
The world number 11 takes on the world number 5 – this pairing definitely deserves the Miami final! It will be Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev who will be hoping for a successful evening on Sunday.
Much more highly decorated, of course, is the Russian, who has been catching almost everyone since his early exit at the Australian Open. If I start my analysis with the 27-year-old, there is of course a lot to praise him for.
He has won the title three times in a row, including an outright victory over Novak Djokovic. It seemed as if Medvedev was back to his old self, who had once outplayed the Djoker in three sets at the US Open.
In Indian Wells, however, his winning streak snapped. After some problematic encounters, he found his master in Carlos Alcaraz at 3-6, 2-6, had no chance. Is he happy that the Spaniard missed the final in Miami?
In Miami, at any rate, one had the impression that he hadn’t really had to push his limits yet, at least until the semi-finals. His 6-1, 6-2 against Roberto Carballes was a light gallop at best, then Alex Molcan pulled away.
After his 6-4, 6-2 against Quentin Halys and the following 6-3, 7-5 against qualifier Christopher Eubanks, compatriot Karen Khachanov was waiting, and he was to give Medvedev a really tough test.
In the end, the favourite was jubilant, but he had to work hard to win 7-6, 3-6, 6-3. In terms of points won as well as points won as setbacks, however, he was not the better in each case!
No question, this match could well have had a different outcome. In his first Miami final, he will now face a player against whom he still has a flawless record.
Five times he has played Jannik Sinner, five times he has won! It was only about six weeks ago that the two faced each other in the final in Rotterdam. Medvedev won 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 back then, shining with 85% successful first serves.
Interesting: In Miami, he only achieved a rate of over 80 per cent once. Jannik Sinner should know that the Russian is not always as consistent in terms of service as he was in 2021.
The South Tyrolean is facing a decisive Sunday, could provide a highlight in his career.
In Indian Wells he had lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals after a great fight, but this time he turned the tables. I’ll roll up the field from the back, so to speak, and start with Sinner’s most recent appearance in Miami.
Although he lost the first set in a tiebreak against Alcaraz, he had a strong grip on his nerves. He countered, snatching a 6-4, 6-2 and, surprisingly to some, knocking out the top seed!
He gave his opponent twelve break chances, but managed to fend off nine of them. On the other hand, he took half of his twelve opportunities. Sinner had already been able to convince before this victory.
He beat Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 6-4, was on top in a 6-2, 6-4 win over Andrey Rublev and also gave Emil Ruusuvuori (6-3, 6-1) no chance. There was also little to criticise in his 6-4, 6-2 opener against Laslo Djere.
The young South Tyrolean has only dropped one set, and that in a tiebreak against the world number 1! No question, he is playing an incredible tournament here and would have more than deserved the second title of the year.
While it is the first Miami final for Medvedev, Sinner knows what a final here feels like. Two years ago, he was only 19 years old, he dueled here with his good friend Hubert Hurkacz.
He lost very narrowly 6-7, 4-6, but managed to play his way into the hearts of the fans then in the final of the two surprises. Hopefully it is not a bad omen for Sunday that he had already eliminated Emil Ruusuvuori in 2021 as well.
My Sinner Medvedev Tip
Daniil Medvedev or Jannik Sinner, who is Miami’s best player? Both have been convincing, but the South Tyrolean has clearly been able to eliminate the better opponents. Will that give him a decisive advantage?
Of course, Daniil Medvedev is never to be underestimated, but the match against Karen Khachanov in the semi-finals showed: Someone is shaking! Since Sinner still gives his opponents too many break opportunities, I believe in a close, long match and bet:
Sinner and Medvedev go into three sets!
