ATP Masters in Miami, quarter-finals, Thursday, 30/03/2023
Is the defending champion unstoppable? At the Miami Masters, last year’s champion has quickly earned a reputation as the absolute top favourite, of course also because he already stood at the top in Indian Wells.
Now he faces the strongest local hero the tournament has to offer, but is clearly favoured at Bet-at-Home. In my Alcaraz Fritz tip, I now reveal why I can’t imagine the Spaniard making a mistake either.
You always have to add it with Carlos Alcaraz: This boy is only 19 years old! Nerves of steel, countless titles and the number 1 in the world, if you read his CV, you definitely get dizzy sometimes.
After missing the Australian Open due to injury and thus having to relinquish his place at the top of the world rankings, he didn’t take long to mope around and came back even stronger.
Alcaraz travelled to Indian Wells with the spoils of two finals and a title. Once there, he was unstoppable, eventually eliminating Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jannik Sinner and, in the final, Daniil Medvedev.
And not in close matches, but with bravado such as the 6-3, 6-2 win over Medvedev. He grabbed the No. 1 spot again and headed to Miami with goals to match.
He is the defending champion there, having won the final against Casper Ruud here a year ago. Our bookmakers can well imagine that Alcaraz will also outdo his competitors here.
After an easy 6-2, 6-0 win over Facundo Bagnis in the opener, he played a very curious match against Dusan Lajovic. 6-0, 7-6, these two sets could not have been more different.
It is no wonder that he did not have a 6-0 to offer in the round of 16, after all, his opponent was much more demanding in the shape of Tommy Paul. The 6-4, 6-4 was relatively close, but also showed the Spanish strength of nerve.
Paul had a break chance, but Alcaraz defended it skilfully. Now, for the first time ever, he will meet Taylor Fritz, an opponent who is a proud 13 centimetres taller than him.
But that doesn’t stop the bookies from giving Alcaraz the clear favourite role once again, with the odds averaging 1.28 to 3.55. On good days, however, as he should know, Fritz can really annoy anyone.
The world number 10 has reached the round of the best eight in Miami for the first time ever, so the tournament has not been considered his personal favourite so far. This year, things are going better, not dropping a set in three matches.
His 6-4, 6-1 opening win over Emilio Nava was to be expected, but after that his opponents quickly became more demanding. Denis Shapovalov demanded much more from him, but in the end Fritz kept his nerve in a 6-4, 6-4 win.
He collected a similar result against Holger Rune, not everyone had expected such a relaxed outcome as the 6-3, 6-4. Fritz only allowed two breaks in total, but his game did have its weaknesses.
He averaged 60% successful first serves, a category in which he had already achieved better results. While the rate of points won on the first service against Nava and Shapovalov was still over 80%, it was a different story against Rune.
He managed 56%, so in the end the victory also had to do with the fact that Rune did not have a good day. Fritz now has to show that he is close to beating the really big players again.
In Indian Wells, for example, he lost to Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals, and in Acapulco he was eliminated by Tommy Paul. The 25-year-old is obviously still lacking consistency.
My Alcaraz Fritz Tip
Doesn’t Carlos Alcaraz show any nerves at all? The best tennis player in the world, at least at the moment, really seems to have it all together. After his Indian Wells title, he is also preparing to triumph at the end in Miami.
His performances so far could not be better. Admittedly, Taylor Fritz is also still without a set loss here. But: His values, especially in service, do not come close to Alcaraz. I therefore trust the youngster to teach me the next lesson and I’m betting on him:
Alcaraz wins outright against Fritz!
