Australian Open 2023, Final, Saturday, 28/01/2023
They are the two best tennis players of the Australian Open 2023: Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka! I wonder if they were to be expected? Let’s put it this way, it surprises everyone that we don’t find the name Iga Swiatek on the tableau.
For the one it is now the first final at a Grand Slam, for the other the second after Wimbledon 2023. The bookmakers have sided with the woman who has not yet lost a match this year – with odds of 1.70 to 2.15.
In my Rybakina Sabalenka tip, I’ll explain exactly what makes me think the underdog has a better chance of winning, even though Sabalenka has yet to lose a set.
2012 and 2013 was the time: the Belarusian flag in women’s tennis outshone all others, at least Down Under. Victoria Azarenka is still the only one from her country to have ever reached a final at the Australian Open.
Now Aryna Sabalenka is preparing to follow her compatriot. She has been among the world’s top players for a few years now, but so far she has lacked the coolness to climb the podium on the big stage.
Three semi-finals, that was her record at the Grand Slams so far. Now, the 24-year-old has finally made it to the final, and without fail. After her title in Adelaide, she started like fire in Melbourne.
Sabalenka started with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Tereza Martincova, followed by a 6-3, 6-1 win over Shelby Rogers. Even when her opponent Elise Mertens got a bit heavier, she didn’t let herself get rattled.
The 6-2, 6-3 did not cost her more energy than absolutely necessary. So Sabalenka saved her energy, which she could use for the quarter-final against Belinda Bencic. 7-5, 6-2, the Belarusian was only shaken for a short time.
With Donna Vekic, the draw for the round of the best eight presented her with a rival who once again could not keep up at all. The favourite went home with a 6-3, 6-2 and remained without dropping a set.
The big surprise of the tournament was Magda Linette in the semi-finals. Although the Pole had done very well up to that point, Sabalenka showed her her limits relentlessly.
At least the first set went into a tiebreak, but at 6-1 at the latest it was clear how deserving the final was for Sabalenka. Now everything is new for her, her nerves, which she did not always have under control in the past, must now hold.
Sabalenka has met Elena Rybakina three times in her career, twice in 2021, with a record of 3-0! In all three matches, both had to go to a third set, so caution is advised on Saturday.
Three sets, that would mean that Sabalenka would give up one for the first time? Against Elena Rybakina, who is slightly behind with odds of 2,15 to 1,70. On the other hand, she has a decisive advantage over her opponent.
Last year in Wimbledon, the Russian-born surprised everyone and stormed to an unexpected title. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if she manages to pull off such a feat again.
In front of Bill Gates, Rybakina eliminated Victoria Azarenka 7-6, 6-3. The 1.84m tall Kazakh shines with a service that is unparalleled among the ladies.
She had already impressed with her victories over Jelena Ostapenko (6-2, 6-4) and above all Iga Swiatek (6-4, 6-4), but lost her only set in the tournament when she defeated Danielle Collins 6-2, 5-7, 6-2.
On average, the 23-year-old collects almost 80% of the points she wins on her first serve and hardly allows her opponents to break. Caution is called for, because: In the Wimbledon final, Ons was unable to break Jabeur at all!
Is Aryna Sabalenka finally crowned Grand Slam Champion? The Belarusian is playing her first final on the big stage, and she has done so without dropping a single set in recent days.
The bookmakers also see her as the favourite because she is clearly ranked higher than Elena Rybakina and has won all three duels. But: While Sabalenka gets over the emotion, Rybakina serves hard and ice-cold.
She already won Wimbledon in 2022, even then as an underdog. That’s the reason why I see the advantage in the Russian-born player, who already knows a GS final. So my tip is:
Rybakina wins the Australian Open!
