ATP Tournament in Gstaad, semi-finals, Saturday, 23.07.2022
He gets better and better and better! Dominic Thiem finally gets to play in another semi-final in Gstaad on Saturday. He’ll be up against a brutally strong opponent, but maybe he’ll still manage to pull off a surprise.
But the Austrian is no longer underestimated. In my Thiem Berrettini I reveal why I would bet in the direction of a Thiem win!
When was the last time Dominic Thiem was on court on a Saturday without qualifying? It feels like years since the former world No. 3 was in the top four.
But in Gstaad it has finally happened again, he has actually made it to the semi-finals! The last few tournaments already showed cautious progress, and now the improvements in performance are also showing through in the results.
After a 1-6, 6-1, 7-6 against Hugo Gaston, where he made a great comeback, he managed a smooth 7-6, 6-3 win against Federico Delbonis. In the quarter-finals, Thiem showed that his nerves are also back at a top level.
Juan Pablo Varillas was the underdog, but you have to be that cool to win 6-4, 6-3 after being in the doldrums for ages! If he hadn’t only used five of the twelve break chances, the match might have ended even earlier.
On his first serve, the Viennese consistently comes close to 80% of the points won, which is exactly the strength he needs in the semi-finals. The spectators noticed that this surface is his friend.
For the first time since May 2021, he gets to play a semifinal again. And against a player who leads 3:2 in the direct comparison. Berrettini won three duels outright, while Thiem needed extra time for each of his two victories.
A small plus point could be that the only match on clay went to Austria. And of course the fact that Berrettini is not at all comfortable on clay. The Italian is at home on grass, which became particularly clear in 2022.
After two tournament victories, he travelled to Wimbledon as the top favourite behind Novak Djokovic, only to have to leave a few hours before his first round with a positive Corona test.
A big shock for the Roman, and yet one he simply had to accept. In Gstaad, Berrettini is seeded 2nd, but in the 1st round against Richard Gasquet, he had a harder time than expected at 6-4, 6-4.
He broke twice, pulled through his service games, that’s exactly how we know Berrettini. A few days later, however, he was on the brink of retirement against Pedro Martinez. At 3-6, 6-6, his opponent was leading 5-1 in the tiebreak, everything seemed to be decided.
But Berrettini would not be Berrettini if he had not found an answer. From then on, he pulled through, won the tiebreak 7-5 and followed it up with an impressive 6-1 in the third set.
If he performs like that against Thiem, something should be possible for the Austrian. It has been four years since the 26-year-old won the tournament in Gstaad and he is also one of the hottest contenders in 2022.
Whether it was the aftermath of the Corona infection, the anger about missing the Grand Slam on his favourite surface or the slow clay, Berrettini did not bring his top form onto the court against Martinez.
My Thiem Berrettini tip
Dominic Thiem in the semi-finals, we had to wait a long time for this moment. He’s back in the top 200, improving both athletically and mentally from match to match.
With Matteo Berrettini he now has a brutal opponent. But also one who is not one of the best on clay. That’s also the reason why I’m going for the following tip:
Victory Dominic Thiem!
