Grand Prix of Great Britain in Silverstone, Sunday, 03.07.2022
These are turbulent times in Formula 1. The Silly Season is in full swing, not all drivers have a cockpit secured for next year yet. But in July these drivers can finally prove themselves, because there will be two double headers.
The first double header starts at the Home of Motorsport. Because there has always been a lot of spectacle – and discussion – at the British Grand Prix in recent years.
The high-speed circuit definitely promises some exciting duels, such as the team-internal duel between the two Red Bulls. But experience shows that Mercedes also have a good chance of a very good placing at their home race.
Ferrari, meanwhile, is on the rise again – but still far behind Red Bull and Verstappen. That’s why in my Formula 1 prediction for the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, I’m also assuming a close three-way battle.
According to the motto “If two quarrel, the third rejoices”, Ferrari will be hoping for some help from Mercedes at this weekend’s British Grand Prix.
Because Toto Wolff’s team reckons it has a great chance at the home race in Silverstone. This is due to the fact that the Silver Arrows are very familiar with the track and that the team has already announced many technical updates.
Especially the rear and front wings as well as the underbody are being experimented with. Hopes are high that the bouncing problem, which has caused the drivers headaches in the past, will be a thing of the past once and for all.
In terms of pace, however, it was already apparent in Barcelona that the Mercedes is well on the way to closing the gap on the other two top teams. George Russell, in particular, is getting everything out of his first season so far.
The Briton is the only driver to have finished all races in the top 5 and is currently one of the reasons why the gap to Ferrari and Red Bull is not even bigger. The goal is clear: to catch up with the top 2 again.
The last races showed that it is possible, with the updates a top6 finish could be possible again for both Mercedes drivers. Formula 1 betting offers odds of around 1.50 for this tip.
A top 3 finish is not very likely either, with odds of around 2.75 for Hamilton and 3.00 for Russell, if the bookmakers are to be believed – but Mercedes does have an advantage over Red Bull and Ferrari.
Because in the nine races the Mercedes did not drop out once, unlike the other two teams. Ferrari has been struggling with the engine time and again, especially in the last few months.
The Red Bull cars, which already dropped out at the beginning of the season, also had difficulties with the gearbox again at the Canadian GP. It will be exciting to see which of the three cars performs best.
Because Red Bull and Ferrari have the best cars in the field on this high-speed track, the fight for pole will depend on nuances.
Carlos Sainz in particular, who did not perform as well as he would have liked at the beginning of the season and consequently came in for criticism, challenged Verstappen for first place for a long time and showed that the Ferrari can definitely keep up not only on one lap, but over the entire race.
Charles Leclerc also drove from the back of the field into the front ranks of the points and thus continues to keep the fight for the world championship exciting.
Due to the track layout, a lot of driving is done at full throttle, but especially in the Magotts-Becketts complex from turn 10 onwards, it is important to set up the car perfectly in order not to lose any time.
Last year it was here that the crash between Verstappen and Hamilton occurred, which caused discussions for a long time afterwards. For Hamilton, who holds the most wins at the Silverstone circuit, the home race will be important to close the gap on the competition.
There has been a Mercedes party after eight of the last ten races. This contrasts with a winning streak of 10 consecutive defeats.
It could be similarly heated this year, especially as the weather can also play a decisive role at Silverstone.
After all, it is supposed to remain changeable the whole weekend, so the chances of rain during the race are very high. This, in turn, calls the strategists to action, because then the race could be decided in the pits.
In addition, a safety car does not seem so improbable; German bookmakers are offering odds of around 2.10 for exactly one.
It will also be exciting to see how the rest of the field performs on the track. Aston Martin could have difficulties, as slow corners like in Baku or Monaco are more to the liking of the car.
The last 5 races at Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve:
Upgrades could help here too. Ditto for Haas, as the worry lines continue to grow for the American team. At the beginning of the season, Günther Steiner’s team was still one of the secret favourites for a midfield finish.
However, for the last five races, the team has been 0 due to driving errors and several technical defects, including in Canada. It remains to be seen how reliable the car will be in Silverstone.
Nevertheless, the tip “Both cars do not finish the race” is quite likely with odds of around 1.55.
Summary: In qualifying, the Ferrari has had clear advantages on several occasions recently, as on a lap the Scuderia is better by decisive fractions of a second.
However, Red Bull will also bring some updates that should significantly improve the RB18. Nevertheless, the car’s balance has improved considerably since Bahrain. That’s why I’m expecting a three-way fight in qualifying as well.
Hamilton likes the track, the Mercedes seems to be getting better and better, Ferrari showed last week that the Bolide, which already seemed strong from the start, can also keep up at race distance.
Verstappen with the further updates and current form seems to be probably the biggest favourite for pole. Consequently, I still believe that Verstappen is currently still a bit ahead of Hamilton and Leclerc and will therefore secure pole.
My tip: Verstappen takes the pole
