Monaco Grand Prix in Monte Carlo, Sunday 29/05/2022 at 15:00
Monaco is an integral part of Formula 1. The classic has been on the racing calendar since 1950 and thrives on the excitement in the narrow streets in a superlative city full of glitz and glamour.
The current battle for the top spot in the world championship is just as “superlative”. Mercedes made an impressive comeback in Barcelona. Ferrari and Red Bull, on the other hand, both had to struggle with technical problems. Verstappen took his third victory, but Mercedes was still able to close the gap to the top teams for the first time.
That’s why in my Formula 1 prediction for the Monaco Grand Prix, I also believe in Mercedes and a three-way battle between Red Bull, Ferrari and Toto Wolff’s team for victory.
There is an unwritten law in Formula 1: the premier class of motorsport needs Monaco more urgently than Monaco needs Formula 1. But times have changed. Because this year’s Monaco Grand Prix could be the last.
Since Liberty Media owns the rights, the focus has shifted strongly to Asia and the USA and more to profit. Because Monaco is the only organiser that has to pay comparatively low entry fees. Therefore, this event could be removed from the race calendar.
And indeed, Monaco looks spectacular with its narrow street circuit, but it is not the most exciting race, because overtaking is almost impossible here.
However, the smallest driving errors are punished very severely here with a crash into the barriers. Such a crash would be fatal for Charles Leclerc, for example. The Monegasque is under particular pressure at his home race.
Because he is haunted by the Monaco curse. In his total of five race starts, Leclerc has not been able to finish the race in either Formula 1 or Formula 2. Nevertheless, the Ferrari driver is the clear favourite for pole position in Formula 1 betting on the Monaco GP with odds of around 1.90.
This is also due to the fact that the Ferrari has at least as good a chassis as the Red Bull, especially thanks to the updates in Barcelona. In addition, the driver factor plays a role here.
Of course, Verstappen is also very familiar with the track. However, Leclerc grew up in this city and therefore knows every corner.
It will also be exciting to see whether the “Red Bulls”, who are going into qualifying with odds beyond 2.00 with the German bookmakers, have got to grips with their DRS problem from Barcelona.
Those who have improved a lot are Mercedes. The new updates worked and the Silver Arrows have finally put their porpoising problem to rest, as evidenced by their recent finishes close to the podium.
Nevertheless, the bookmakers still don’t quite believe in a success for the Duso Russel/Hamilton in the Formula 1 betting on the Monaco GP. With double-digit odds, Mercedes is not yet playing a role in the fight for the podium places. Nevertheless, the tip “Both drivers in the top 6” would be conceivable with odds of around 1.66.
The track layout in Monaco is incredibly tight with many slow corners. Due to the very smooth asphalt, the tyres are less stressed than last time in Barcelona.
The 19 corners on one of the shortest Formula 1 circuits make qualifying more crucial than at any other race. Because in the race itself, overtaking is only possible through an early undercut or a blatant driving mistake.
On the other hand, the last few years and the new cars give hope. Because in only two of the last five races did the driver who started the race from pole also win. In addition, the many duels and overtaking manoeuvres showed that something is definitely possible.
The tip is particularly likely if the weather plays along. According to the forecasts, it should rain on Sunday, which in Monaco means the end of the race for the drivers if they make the slightest mistake.
The last 5 races at the Circuit de Monaco:
Hope for an exciting race is also given by the race winners of the last years. With the exception of an interim dominance by Niko Rosberg, the winners have always come from different racing teams.
Overtaking is only possible immediately after the start. Because whoever is ahead after the 200-metre straight at Sainte Devote should have a good chance of winning.
The rest of the field is left behind, because overtaking manoeuvres are rare here. While there were 15 in 2016, there were only 6 in 2018 and only 2 changes of position the following year.
Conclusion: For the all-important qualifying, I still see Red Bull and Ferrari ahead. Both teams have had problems with the car and the technology recently, but the Ferrari in particular is also very strong in the slow corners.
Red Bull will not be able to use their engine power in Monaco, but it will be exciting to see how Verstappen performs.
The Dutchman, who has won three races in a row, has incredible confidence and has shown on several occasions this year that he continues to drive aggressively and on the limit, but still in a considered manner.
Therefore, it is difficult to make a clear prediction about the pole sitter. But I think Leclerc will have a narrow lead, as he did last time in Monaco.
This is why my tip is: Leclerc will start the race from pole.
