Italian Open in Rome, Round of 16, Thursday, 12.05.2022
The younger colleague needs a little break, so who else but Rafael Nadal should enter the list of winners of the Italian Open for the second time? The clay specialist is, of course, one of the very big favourites.
Of course, the competition is still fierce, but his opening match in Rome was great. So great, in fact, that he is once again clearly in the lead at the bookies in the round of 16, despite his strong opponents. Whether the bookies are right or not, I will now discuss in my Nadal Shapovalov tip!
When it comes to Rafael Nadal, can you even say that a tournament on clay is “his tournament”? In a few weeks, the Spaniard will be 36 years old, but still hardly anyone can fool him on the red surface.
One or two aches and pains have started to show on Nadal’s side, but the competition is not yet strong enough to take advantage of them on a regular basis. None, except one – and that one recently struck in Madrid.
Nadal already struggled in Spain against Miomir Kecmanovic in the tiebreak of the 1st round, then needed three sets against David Goffin. Finally, he faced Carlos Alcaraz and had to realise: I can’t keep up my best tennis against this 19-year-old competitor.
He lost 2-6, 6-1, 6-3, Alcaraz was simply too agile over the full distance. But I wouldn’t call it a changing of the guard yet, because Nadal was on top in Indian Wells in March and was able to put Alcaraz in his place.
Overall, the 35-year-old is having a fantastic year in 2022, with a few slight drawbacks, but he hasn’t lost any of his cool. Of course, he also knows exactly how to serve on the Roman clay.
Nadal is the record champion of this tournament, having taken the title ten times already. As the defending champion and in the absence of Alcaraz, the trophy should only go through him this year.
His start was already extremely promising, there was no sign of the problems from Madrid. He won 6-3, 6-1 against John Isner and never let the service specialist get into the match.
Nadal knows exactly which opponent he will now face. He leads 4-1 against Denis Shapovalov, but he rarely had it easy. He was already 2-0 down at the last Australian Open before the empire fought back and won the match.
It is also interesting that the two have already met in Rome in 2018 and 2021. After Nadal won clearly four years ago, the world No. 4 had to stretch quite a bit in last year’s 3-6, 6-4, 7-6.
Of course, one should never write off Denis Shapovalov, but the way he is currently presenting himself in Rome, it will be difficult against Nadal.
He already had a lot of trouble when he beat Lorenzo Sonego 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, and Nikolos Bassilashvili was later defeated 6-4, 7-6. Both victories cost the Canadian a lot of energy – and the quarrel with the spectators cost him sympathy.
He was already not in top form in Madrid and was eliminated early against Andy Murray. Miami and Indian Wells? All in all, he only won one match here. No question, Shapovalov does not look like a world number 16 at the moment.
Nadal, Djokovic, Schwartzman, Nadal? If you read through the names he has failed to beat in Rome in the last four years, advancing on Thursday might not be realistic.
My Nadal Shapovalov tip
In the duel with the old champion, it might also work against the Canadian that he has the crowd against him after his abusive behaviour in the 1st round.
If Nadal’s expected “home match” is then supplemented by the weaknesses shown by Shapovalov recently, the reigning Australian Open winner might actually face a rather uncomplicated affair.
Accordingly, I not only expect the favourite to win – but I also trust Nadal to make it through with less than 23 games to play.
