ATP Masters in Madrid, 2nd round, Wednesday, 04.05.2022
In the last tournaments he always belonged to the top favourites, but meanwhile also the bookmakers have realised: Casper Ruud is anything but in strong form shortly before the French Open!
At the Madrid Open, the Norwegian will now get a new chance to finally show his potential more consistently.
While he is clearly favoured by the bookmakers in the 1st round, I tend to come to a somewhat closer assessment in my Lajovic Ruud tip!
How strong is he really, this Casper Ruud? At the Miami Open, he finally showed what he can do when nerves get the better of him. He won against Alexander Zverev, Cameron Norrie and Alexander Bublik, but lost the final to Carlos Alcaraz.
But whoever thought that the knot had finally broken was mistaken. In Monte Carlo, he was already out of his mind, losing outright to Grigor Dimitrov in round 2, after almost losing to Holger Rune.
In Barcelona, Ruud beat Brandon Nakashima and Emil Ruusuvuori, but Pablo Carreno Busta was too big for him. The Norwegian did even worse at the BMW Open in Munich.
He just managed to turn around a deficit against Alex Molcan, but an outright defeat against Botic van de Zandschulp is absolutely unacceptable for a player of his class.
Now he hopes to improve his performance on Spanish clay. He definitely has good memories of the court, because a year ago he played his way to the semi-finals with victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas, among others.
Ruud has had to deal with his current opponent Dusan Lajovic three times so far, and the 3:0 result is quite clear. The favourite won all three duels, the most recent one a few months ago in the ATP Cup.
The field of participants is so prominent that he even had to qualify as world number 77. However, he came through this with flying colours, knocking out Adrian Mannarino and Roberto Carballes in two sets each.
In the main draw, Lajovic finally started with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win over Borna Coric. He only allowed one break, will he be able to show that against Ruud? Four years ago, the Serb made it to the quarter-finals in Madrid, and it was the only time he won a match here until the current competition.
He would need top form against Casper Ruud, but I don’t really see that in the 31-year-old. In Estoril and Belgrade he was eliminated right at the start, in the whole of 2022 he NEVER won his second match.
My Lajovic Ruud Tip
The performance curve of Casper Ruud has had a few kinks in the last few months, the Norwegian just can’t seem to find his form. Great performances are immediately followed by weaker ones.
Dusan Lajovic a clearly inferior opponent, but as changeable as Ruud has been in the last few weeks, I don’t expect him to progress in a hurry. Therefore, I’m betting on:
We see more than 18.5 Games!
